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FutureFuel Corp (FF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of FutureFuel Corp $2.88, price $5.14, upside -44.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN US36116M1062

FC FutureFuel Corp logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

FutureFuel Corp

FF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.88 · Strongly overvalued (−44%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −14.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -47.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·4.67% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$6.37 $3.00 Fair Value $2.88 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.00 – $6.37 · fair‑value band $1.90 – $3.60 · the $5.14 price screens above the $2.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

FutureFuel Corp., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells diversified inorganic chemicals, bio-based fuel, and bio-based specialty chemical products in the United States. It operates through two segments: Chemicals and Biofuels.

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FutureFuel Corp., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells diversified inorganic chemicals, bio-based fuel, and bio-based specialty chemical products in the United States. It operates through two segments: Chemicals and Biofuels. The Chemicals segment includes custom chemicals that are used in coatings, chemical intermediates, industrial and consumer cleaning, oil and gas, and specialty chemicals for specific customers under long-term contracts; and performance chemicals, which are multi-customer specialty products such as polymer modifiers, specialty solvents, surfactants, and glycerin products. The Biofuels segment is involved in the production and sale of biodiesel and petrodiesel blends; markets its biodiesel products directly to customers through trucks, barges, and rail cars; and biodiesel using a variety of feedstocks, including soy oil, poultry fat, used cooking oil, and tallow, and generates and sells byproducts such as glycerin and distillation residue. The company offers its chemical products to customers in markets including detergents, agrochemicals, automotive, oil and gas, coatings, nutrition, and polymer additives. The company serves the transportation, agriculture, heating, and energy sectors. FutureFuel Corp. is headquartered in Batesville, Arkansas.

Stock analysis

FutureFuel Corp (FF) currently trades at $5.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.88, implying the stock looks roughly 78.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.90 (bear) to $3.60 (bull), the price of $5.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

FutureFuel Corp reported revenue of $95.7M in FY2025 versus $321M in FY2021, a compound −26.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$49.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $225M · P/S ratio 1.69 · EPS (TTM) $−1.19 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin −51.6% · Return on equity −31.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.9% · Operating margin −65.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −44%, FF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.90 Fair Value $2.88 Bull $3.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.76 $2.36 $3.53 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.76 $2.36 $3.53 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 2
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 84
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−60.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.9% (2020) → −56.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

FF screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 712 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −17% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −47% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −65% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 82% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.7% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.46× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.04× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)93 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $468.14 $441.72 −6%
The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW $326.46 $148.97 −54%
Ecolab Inc ECL $276.72 $96.18 −65%
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD $286.97 $122.14 −57%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 238.00 TWD 235.25 TWD −1%
Givaudan SA GIVN CHF 3,406 CHF 1,523 −55%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥71.60 ¥68.03 −5%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,455 ₹1,479 −40%
PPG Industries, Inc PPG $107.20 $77.06 −28%
DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR CHF 91.50 CHF 29.27 −68%

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FutureFuel Corp · Fair Value
$2.88 −78%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FutureFuel Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FF

Frequently asked questions

Is FutureFuel Corp (FF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.88 versus a price of $5.14, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FF?
Our model-based fair value for FutureFuel Corp is $2.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.14.
What is the quality score of FF?
FutureFuel Corp has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.90, optimistic scenario $3.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FutureFuel Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.88, about −44% upside versus a price of $5.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.90, optimistic scenario $3.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
FutureFuel Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $110M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does FutureFuel Corp pay a dividend?
FutureFuel Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FutureFuel Corp it is $2.88 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.14. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FutureFuel Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.14, fair value $2.88, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.88). For FutureFuel Corp the two are $2.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FutureFuel Corp worth?
The market values FutureFuel Corp at about $225M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.14; our models calculate a fair value of $2.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FF?
Our models span a range for FutureFuel Corp: cautious scenario $1.90, base $2.88, optimistic $3.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Balance-sheet figures for FutureFuel Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −31.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FF from its 52-week high?
FutureFuel Corp trades at $5.14, about 19% below its 52-week high of $6.37 and 72% above the low of $3.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FutureFuel Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FutureFuel Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.14, calculated fair value $2.88 (−44%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FF calculated?
We run FutureFuel Corp through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. FutureFuel Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $5.14. Our model-based fair value is $2.88, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FutureFuel Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.90 to $3.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of FutureFuel Corp (FF) come from?
Earnings per share at FutureFuel Corp grew −7.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −10.8 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of FutureFuel Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The market capitalisation of FutureFuel Corp is $225M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FutureFuel Corp is 1.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Earnings per share at FutureFuel Corp are $−1.19. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The dividend yield of FutureFuel Corp is 4.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The net margin of FutureFuel Corp is −51.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FutureFuel Corp is −31.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FutureFuel Corp is −1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The operating margin of FutureFuel Corp is −65.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Revenue at FutureFuel Corp is growing +82.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −37.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Earnings per share at FutureFuel Corp are growing −88.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does FutureFuel Corp (FF) generate?
The free cash flow of FutureFuel Corp is −$46.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does FutureFuel Corp (FF) hold?
FutureFuel Corp holds more cash than debt, $51.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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