FutureFuel Corp (FF) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $186M

Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($1.90 to $3.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.00 – $7.70 · fair‑value band $1.90 – $3.60 · the $5.09 price screens above the $2.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

FutureFuel Corp (FF) currently trades at $5.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.88, implying the stock looks roughly 43.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, FutureFuel Corp generated revenue of $110M at a net margin of -47.1%. Revenue grew 82.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -31.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $51.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.90 (bear case) to $3.60 (bull case); at $5.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -43%, FF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

FutureFuel Corp., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells diversified inorganic chemicals, bio-based fuel, and bio-based specialty chemical products in the United States. It operates through two segments: Chemicals and Biofuels.

Full company description

FutureFuel Corp., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells diversified inorganic chemicals, bio-based fuel, and bio-based specialty chemical products in the United States. It operates through two segments: Chemicals and Biofuels. The Chemicals segment includes custom chemicals that are used in coatings, chemical intermediates, industrial and consumer cleaning, oil and gas, and specialty chemicals for specific customers under long-term contracts; and performance chemicals, which are multi-customer specialty products such as polymer modifiers, specialty solvents, surfactants, and glycerin products. The Biofuels segment is involved in the production and sale of biodiesel and petrodiesel blends; markets its biodiesel products directly to customers through trucks, barges, and rail cars; and biodiesel using a variety of feedstocks, including soy oil, poultry fat, used cooking oil, and tallow, and generates and sells byproducts such as glycerin and distillation residue. The company offers its chemical products to customers in markets including detergents, agrochemicals, automotive, oil and gas, coatings, nutrition, and polymer additives. The company serves the transportation, agriculture, heating, and energy sectors. FutureFuel Corp. is headquartered in Batesville, Arkansas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

FutureFuel Corp reported revenue of $95.7M in FY2025 versus $321M in FY2021, a compound −26.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$49.4M in FY2025.

FF screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 673 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.