Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT stock IDR 570, price IDR 650, that is 12.2% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT
HMSP · JKOur calculation puts a fair price 12% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 431.14 IDR – 895.65 IDR · fair‑value band 384.19 IDR – 763.96 IDR · the 650.00 IDR price screens above the 570.44 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Company profile
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture, distribution, and trading of cigarettes and other tobacco products in Indonesia and Internationally.
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It offers combustible cigarettes, including machine-made kretek (SKM), hand-rolled kretek, machine-made white, and hand-rolled white cigarettes under the Dji Sam Soe Magnum, Sampoerna Kretek, Sampoerna A, Magnum, and Marlboro Filter Black brand names.
The company also provides smoke-free products, such as heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral smokeless products. In addition, it is involved in general trading; e-commerce and agency; and property development business.
Further, the company offers general importer, warehousing, and delivery services; job training; and management consulting, advertising, and brand management services. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia.
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Philip Morris Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) currently trades at 650.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 570.44 IDR, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 1,184 IDR per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the 650.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 116.57 IDR, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 384.19 IDR (bear) to 763.96 IDR (bull), the price of 650.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT reported revenue of 44.3T IDR in FY2025 versus 98.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound −18.2%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6T IDR in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 75.6T IDR (≈ $4.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) 75.00 IDR · Dividend yield 8.7% · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −12%, HMSP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
Compare Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 29 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Return on assets by industry
- Fair value gap by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLX Technology Inc RLX | $1.61 | $2.77 | +72% | vs HMSP |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 15,075 IDR | 20,535 IDR | +36% | vs HMSP |
| TABAK TABAK | 17,280 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +34% | vs HMSP |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$26.14 | HK$30.63 | +17% | vs HMSP |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $60.89 | $66.86 | +10% | vs HMSP |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹283.15 | ₹306.74 | +8% | vs HMSP |
| Altria Group MO | $76.12 | $82.13 | +8% | vs HMSP |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹1,790 | ₹1,050 | −41% | vs HMSP |
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $197.88 | $112.99 | −43% | vs HMSP |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 189,900 KRW | 104,858 KRW | −45% | vs HMSP |
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Key figures of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT
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