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Data-driven stock valuation

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi stock TRY 3.91, price TRY 10.10, that is 61.3% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials TR · ISIN TREKCAE00030

KC Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi

KCAER · IS
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 61% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +65.1 %/yr in TRY)
Thin margins · 2.6% net margin (TTM)
Revenue last quarter 18% below a year ago.
Fair value 3.91 TRY · Strongly overvalued
Quality 39/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/13)
Narrow moat 30/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

21.83 TRY 3.02 TRY Fair Value 3.91 TRY Jun 2022 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

52‑month range 3.02 TRY – 21.83 TRY · fair‑value band 3.80 TRY – 4.29 TRY · the 10.10 TRY price screens above the 3.91 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of iron and steel products in Turkey and internationally.

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It offers merchant bars, such as equal angle, round, square, T, serrated flat, and flat bars; UB and UC universal beams and columns, W beam, IPE beams, HEA/HEB beams, and IPN profiles; PFC, C, UPN, UAC, CH, and UPE channels; and mining and tunneling steel profiles.

The company also provides rasp bars, steel profiles for solar mounting and tracking systems, and underground fortification systems; and window sections.

In addition, it is involved in domestic and international logistics activities; production of electricity and steam energy; and foreign trade services.

The company serves structural steel, solar energy infrastructure, energy transmission line, mining, tunneling, transportation, machinery manufacturing, agriculture, shipbuilding, and defense industries.

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Denizli, Turkey.

Stock analysis

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) currently trades at 10.10 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.91 TRY, 61% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 16.01 TRY per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the 10.10 TRY price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 0.5650 TRY, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 3.80 TRY (bear) to 4.29 TRY (bull), the price of 10.10 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, reported revenue of 24.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 4.2B TRY in FY2021, a compound +54.6%/yr. Reported net income was 473M TRY in FY2025, compounding +37.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap 19.3B TRY (≈ $385M) Small · P/E ratio 28.1 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) 0.3600 TRY · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 10.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −61%, KCAER screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 3.80 TRY Fair Value 3.91 TRY Bull 4.29 TRY
Price 10.10 TRY · Downside -61.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3107 TRY per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income 3.80 TRY 3.91 TRY 4.13 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 8.39 TRY 9.29 TRY 10.12 TRY 72
EPV 8.29 TRY 9.03 TRY 9.63 TRY 71
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.68 TRY 3.34 TRY 4.20 TRY 66
EPV 8.29 TRY 9.03 TRY 9.63 TRY 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.4500 TRY 0.5700 TRY 0.6600 TRY 69
DDM Multi-Stage 0.4500 TRY 0.5600 TRY 0.6600 TRY 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 3.15 TRY 4.20 TRY 5.25 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 3.15 TRY 4.20 TRY 5.25 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 14.43 TRY 19.24 TRY 24.05 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 13.27 TRY 18.15 TRY 23.04 TRY 66
EV/EBITDA 11.10 TRY 15.26 TRY 19.42 TRY 67
EV/Revenue 11.31 TRY 16.76 TRY 22.20 TRY 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.21 TRY 4.30 TRY 6.41 TRY 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 3.80 TRY 3.91 TRY 4.13 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 8.39 TRY 9.29 TRY 10.12 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2.31 TRY 3.30 TRY 4.29 TRY 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 34
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 4
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 56
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 27
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 64
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 13
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 19
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+38.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%

KCAER screens overvalued: fair value 61% below the price. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 419 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −61.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 4.5% · Below median
Return on assets 1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 2.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 10.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −18.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 28.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.57× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.89× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.5× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)18 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥6.18 ¥8.07 +31% vs KCAER
POSCO Holdings 005490 271,000 KRW 240,001 KRW −11% vs KCAER
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹184.85 ₹148.08 −20% vs KCAER
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,347 ₹1,029 −24% vs KCAER
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €58.52 €36.18 −38% vs KCAER
Reliance, Inc RS $427.15 $211.54 −50% vs KCAER
Nucor Corporation NUE $256.47 $116.49 −55% vs KCAER
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,146 ₹516.03 −55% vs KCAER
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $236.12 $89.54 −62% vs KCAER
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.00 ¥0.5400 −73% vs KCAER

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KCAER

Frequently asked questions

Is Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.91 TRY versus a price of 10.10 TRY, about 61% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KCAER?
Our model-based fair value for Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 3.91 TRY (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 10.10 TRY.
What is the quality score of KCAER?
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.91 TRY (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.80 TRY, optimistic scenario 4.29 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.91 TRY, about 61% lower versus a price of 10.10 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.80 TRY, optimistic scenario 4.29 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi it is 3.91 TRY per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 10.10 TRY. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, KCAER trades above its calculated fair value: price 10.10 TRY, fair value 3.91 TRY, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KCAER?
No. The price is what the market pays today (10.10 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.91 TRY). For Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi the two are 6.19 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, worth?
The market values Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi at about 19.3B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 10.10 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 3.91 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KCAER?
Our models span a range for Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi: cautious scenario 3.80 TRY, base 3.91 TRY, optimistic 4.29 TRY per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 10.10 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KCAER?
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3.91 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KCAER from its 52-week high?
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi trades at 10.10 TRY, about 39% below its 52-week high of 16.65 TRY and 20% above the low of 8.39 TRY (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.91 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi,?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 10.10 TRY, calculated fair value 3.91 TRY (−61%), Quality Score 39/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KCAER calculated?
We run Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 3.91 TRY builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was 10.10 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 3.91 TRY, about 61% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.29 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (3.80 TRY to 4.29 TRY), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi

How large is the market capitalisation of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The market capitalisation of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 19.3B TRY (≈ $385M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 0.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Earnings per share at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi are 0.3600 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The net margin of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 2.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The operating margin of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Revenue at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is growing −18.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Earnings per share at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi are growing +265% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) generate?
The free cash flow of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is −1.1B TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) carry?
The net debt of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 2.7B TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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