Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (KCAER) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · TR · Market cap 29.2B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated today
Share price +17.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.25 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
49‑month range 3.02 TRY – 21.83 TRY · fair‑value band 4.20 TRY – 5.25 TRY · the 15.27 TRY price screens above the 4.20 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (KCAER) currently trades at 15.27 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.20 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 72.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, generated revenue of 21.8B TRY at a net margin of 2.6%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.4%. Net debt stands at 2.7B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 4.20 TRY (bear case) to 5.25 TRY (bull case); at 15.27 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -73%, KCAER screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (10.65 TRY) versus Multiples (4.20 TRY). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of iron and steel products in Turkey and internationally.
Full company description
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of iron and steel products in Turkey and internationally. It offers merchant bars, such as equal angle, round, square, T, serrated flat, and flat bars; UB and UC universal beams and columns, W beam, IPE beams, HEA/HEB beams, and IPN profiles; PFC, C, UPN, UAC, CH, and UPE channels; and mining and tunneling steel profiles. The company also provides rasp bars, steel profiles for solar mounting and tracking systems, and underground fortification systems; and window sections. In addition, it is involved in domestic and international logistics activities; production of electricity and steam energy; and foreign trade services. The company serves structural steel, solar energy infrastructure, energy transmission line, mining, tunneling, transportation, machinery manufacturing, agriculture, shipbuilding, and defense industries. Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Denizli, Turkey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, reported revenue of 24.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 4.2B TRY in FY2021, a compound +54.6%/yr. Reported net income was 473M TRY in FY2025, compounding +37.5%/yr from FY2021.
KCAER screens 73% overvalued. Compare with JSW Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 381 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹185.26 | ₹147.13 | -21% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| SSAB AB SSABA | kr 96.04 | kr 72.43 | -25% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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