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Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi TRY 4.20, price TRY 11.20, upside -62.5%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · TR · ISIN TREKCAE00030

KC Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi

KCAER · IS

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 4.20 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−62.5%)
!Quality 38/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +65.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 2 out of 100
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

21.83 TRY 3.02 TRY Fair Value 4.20 TRY Jun 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

51‑month range 3.02 TRY – 21.83 TRY · fair‑value band 3.15 TRY – 5.25 TRY · the 11.20 TRY price screens above the 4.20 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of iron and steel products in Turkey and internationally.

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Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of iron and steel products in Turkey and internationally. It offers merchant bars, such as equal angle, round, square, T, serrated flat, and flat bars; UB and UC universal beams and columns, W beam, IPE beams, HEA/HEB beams, and IPN profiles; PFC, C, UPN, UAC, CH, and UPE channels; and mining and tunneling steel profiles. The company also provides rasp bars, steel profiles for solar mounting and tracking systems, and underground fortification systems; and window sections. In addition, it is involved in domestic and international logistics activities; production of electricity and steam energy; and foreign trade services. The company serves structural steel, solar energy infrastructure, energy transmission line, mining, tunneling, transportation, machinery manufacturing, agriculture, shipbuilding, and defense industries. Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Denizli, Turkey.

Stock analysis

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (KCAER) currently trades at 11.20 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.20 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 166.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 10.65 TRY per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the 11.20 TRY price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 4.20 TRY, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 3.15 TRY (bear) to 5.25 TRY (bull), the price of 11.20 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, reported revenue of 24.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 4.2B TRY in FY2021, a compound +54.6%/yr. Reported net income was 473M TRY in FY2025, compounding +37.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap 29.2B TRY (≈ $598M) · P/E ratio 93.3 · P/S ratio 1.83 · EPS (TTM) 0.1200 TRY · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1% · Operating margin 6.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −63%, KCAER screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 3.15 TRY Fair Value 4.20 TRY Bull 5.25 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0888 TRY per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 4.48 TRY 4.31 TRY 4.37 TRY 74
EPV 10.07 TRY 11.27 TRY 12.27 TRY 71
ROIC Compounder 12.59 TRY 18.13 TRY 21.06 TRY 70
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.68 TRY 11.73 TRY 16.45 TRY 61
Lynch FV 6.06 TRY 8.65 TRY 11.25 TRY 59
PEG = 1.0 6.06 TRY 8.65 TRY 11.25 TRY 55
EPV 10.07 TRY 11.27 TRY 12.27 TRY 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple 3.15 TRY 4.20 TRY 5.25 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 3.15 TRY 4.20 TRY 5.25 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 3.15 TRY 4.20 TRY 5.25 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 15.90 TRY 20.79 TRY 25.68 TRY 66
EV/EBITDA 13.73 TRY 17.90 TRY 22.06 TRY 67
EV/Revenue 13.95 TRY 19.39 TRY 24.84 TRY 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.21 TRY 4.30 TRY 6.42 TRY 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 4.48 TRY 4.31 TRY 4.37 TRY 74
ROIC Compounder 12.59 TRY 18.13 TRY 21.06 TRY 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 7.45 TRY 10.65 TRY 13.84 TRY 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 27
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+38.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%

KCAER screens 167% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 411 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −62.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.4% · Above median
Return on assets 4.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 93.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.38× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.34× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.0× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)2 · sector 10
PAST (return on equity)18 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 49

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $247.25 $116.49 −53%
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €61.78 €35.04 −43%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $233.66 $127.93 −45%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,277 ₹1,095 −14%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹187.97 ₹147.10 −22%
Reliance, Inc RS $387.28 $211.55 −45%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.84 ¥8.07 +38%
POSCO Holdings PKX $56.95 $69.30 +22%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.09 ¥0.5300 −75%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,165 ₹516.27 −56%

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Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, · Fair Value
4.20 TRY −167%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KCAER

Frequently asked questions

Is Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.20 TRY versus a price of 11.20 TRY, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KCAER?
Our model-based fair value for Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 4.20 TRY (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11.20 TRY.
What is the quality score of KCAER?
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.20 TRY (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.15 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.25 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.20 TRY, about −63% upside versus a price of 11.20 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.15 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.25 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, it is 4.20 TRY per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 11.20 TRY. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, KCAER trades above its calculated fair value: price 11.20 TRY, fair value 4.20 TRY, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KCAER?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11.20 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.20 TRY). For Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, the two are 7.00 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, worth?
The market values Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, at about 29.2B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 11.20 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 4.20 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KCAER?
Our models span a range for Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi,: cautious scenario 3.15 TRY, base 4.20 TRY, optimistic 5.25 TRY per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 11.20 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KCAER?
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 93.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4.20 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KCAER from its 52-week high?
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, trades at 11.20 TRY, about 33% below its 52-week high of 16.65 TRY and 13% above the low of 9.93 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.20 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi,?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 11.20 TRY, calculated fair value 4.20 TRY (−63%), Quality Score 38/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KCAER calculated?
We run Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.20 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 11.20 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 4.20 TRY, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.25 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi,

How large is the market capitalisation of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The market capitalisation of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 29.2B TRY (≈ $598M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 1.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Earnings per share at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, are 0.1200 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 93.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The net margin of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
The operating margin of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Revenue at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER)?
Earnings per share at Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, are growing +279% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) generate?
The free cash flow of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is −1.1B TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (KCAER) carry?
The net debt of Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 2.7B TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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