Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vail Resorts Inc stock $83.42, price $159, that is 47.4% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $115.39 – $297.18 · fair‑value band $58.39 – $113.85 · the $158.59 price screens above the $83.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas.
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This segment is also involved in ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities.
Its lodging segment owns and manages various luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand; operates other lodging properties and various condominiums; and offers resort ground transportation services. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties.
Vail Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) currently trades at $158.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $83.42, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $152.06 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $158.59 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $38.78, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $58.39 (bear) to $113.85 (bull), the price of $158.59 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vail Resorts Inc reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2026 versus $2.5B in FY2022, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $148M in FY2026, compounding −19.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $5.7B Mid · P/E ratio 38.5 · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) $4.12 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −47%, MTN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$58.39Fair Value $83.42Bull$113.85
Price $158.59 · Downside -47.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyRobert A KatzCEO & Chairperson of the Board, Director37,500 shares at $131.81$4.9MMar 16, 2026
BuyAngela A KorchEVP & Chief Financial Officer190 shares at $131.85$25,052Mar 16, 2026
Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 5.6% / 0.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 15%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 3.34 per share, median 6.70 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.6% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The pass-based model delivers revenue stability in variable conditions, yet high leverage combined with thin evidence of durable advantages remains the core constraint on long-term quality.
Main risk: High total debt relative to equity risks limiting funding for guest-experience investments and cost controls, directly constraining recovery in seasonal pass revenue.
Vail Resorts' pass-based model provided stability last winter, lifting pass revenue despite a sharp drop in visits from poor snow conditions. Pass sales for the upcoming season have nonetheless declined, even as the company rolls out premium concierge-style lessons and broader efficiency measures. Will these guest-experience investments and cost controls drive stronger recovery than the weather-related caution lingering among skiers?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−47.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−73.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity10.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)38.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B23.68× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $83.42 versus a price of $158.59, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTN?
Our model-based fair value for Vail Resorts Inc is $83.42 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $158.59.
What is the quality score of MTN?
Vail Resorts Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $83.42 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $58.39, optimistic scenario $113.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vail Resorts Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $83.42, about 47% lower versus a price of $158.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $58.39, optimistic scenario $113.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
Vail Resorts Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Vail Resorts Inc pay a dividend?
Vail Resorts Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.60% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Vail Resorts Inc pays a dividend of $8.88 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 8, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2011. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.78 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vail Resorts Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTN use?
Our models discount Vail Resorts Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vail Resorts Inc that is +18.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vail Resorts Inc grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +18.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vail Resorts Inc (+18.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.35 %: that much free cash flow Vail Resorts Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vail Resorts Inc it is $83.42 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $158.59. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Vail Resorts Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, MTN trades above its calculated fair value: price $158.59, fair value $83.42, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($158.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($83.42). For Vail Resorts Inc the two are $75.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vail Resorts Inc worth?
The market values Vail Resorts Inc at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $158.59; our models calculate a fair value of $83.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTN?
Our models span a range for Vail Resorts Inc: cautious scenario $58.39, base $83.42, optimistic $113.85 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $158.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTN?
Vail Resorts Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.5 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $83.42 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), earnings ex one-offs: 32.1. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 23.7, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MTN?
The PEG ratio of Vail Resorts Inc is 3.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vail Resorts Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 26.0%, debt of 10.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTN from its 52-week high?
Vail Resorts Inc trades at $158.59, about 2% below its 52-week high of $161.08 and 37% above the low of $115.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $83.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vail Resorts Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vail Resorts Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $158.59, calculated fair value $83.42 (−47%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTN calculated?
We run Vail Resorts Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $83.42 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Vail Resorts Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $158.59. Our model-based fair value is $83.42, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vail Resorts Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($113.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($58.39 to $113.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) come from?
Earnings per share at Vail Resorts Inc grew +4.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vail Resorts Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
The market capitalisation of Vail Resorts Inc is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vail Resorts Inc is 2.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
Earnings per share at Vail Resorts Inc are $4.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
The dividend yield of Vail Resorts Inc is 5.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
The net margin of Vail Resorts Inc is 5.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vail Resorts Inc is 26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vail Resorts Inc is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
The operating margin of Vail Resorts Inc is −73.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
Revenue at Vail Resorts Inc is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
Earnings per share at Vail Resorts Inc are growing −15.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) carry?
The net debt of Vail Resorts Inc is $3.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 12.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026