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New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited stock $12.25, price $16.51, that is 25.8% below the price, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials US · Based in Hong Kong · ISIN VGG646271137

NC New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited

NCEW · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 26% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +34% vs. a year ago.
Fair value $12.25 · Overvalued
Quality 29/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −57.8 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -17.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/9)
Narrow moat 9/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate⚠ Small free float
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$20.80 $3.01 Fair Value $12.25 Dec 2024 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

23‑month range $3.01 – $20.80 · fair‑value band $9.19 – $15.31 · the $16.51 price screens above the $12.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides freight forwarding services in Hong Kong.

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The company offers air and ocean export and import freight forwarding services, including cargo space and pick up, off-airport air cargo security screening, palletization, preparation of shipping documentation, arrangement of customs clearance, and cargo handling at ports; and consultancy services.

It is also involved in the provision of ancillary logistics services comprising warehousing and distribution services, such as storage, inventory management, stock take, access to warehousing management systems, pick and pack, labeling, and repackaging services, as well as loading and unloading services; X-ray; and gate charge services.

New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW) currently trades at $16.51, while our estimate is $12.25, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $9.19 (bear) to $15.31 (bull), the price of $16.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares reported revenue of $5.7M in FY2025 versus $71.7M in FY2021, a compound −47.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $52.8M Micro · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) $−3.09 · Net margin −17.8% · Return on equity −146% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1.9% · Revenue growth (YoY) +33.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 449% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −26%, NCEW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $9.19 Fair Value $12.25 Bull $15.31
Price $16.51 · Downside -25.8%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 20
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 43
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 47
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 66
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 88
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 19
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−89.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−57.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.3% (2021) → −24.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NCEW screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 214 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −25.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −73.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −17.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −1.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 33.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.32× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/S (12 months) 1.03× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)84 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥33.82 ¥45.60 +35% vs NCEW
FedEx Corporation FDX $319.48 $350.86 +10% vs NCEW
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $111.05 $107.24 −3% vs NCEW
Deutsche Post AG DHL €58.74 €53.62 −9% vs NCEW
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 228.20 CHF 147.92 −35% vs NCEW
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $189.19 $117.46 −38% vs NCEW
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $226.27 $133.78 −41% vs NCEW
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €25.30 €14.76 −42% vs NCEW
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,433 kr 711.95 −50% vs NCEW
FedEx Freight Holding FDXF $129.83 $54.55 −58% vs NCEW

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New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCEW

Frequently asked questions

Is New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $12.25 versus a price of $16.51, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCEW?
Our estimate for New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is $12.25 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.51.
What is the quality score of NCEW?
New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $12.25 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $9.19, optimistic scenario $15.31. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $12.25, about 26% lower versus a price of $16.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.19, optimistic scenario $15.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited it is $12.25 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $16.51.
Is New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, NCEW trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.51, fair value $12.25, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCEW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.25). For New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited the two are $4.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares worth?
The market values New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited at about $52.8M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $16.51; our models calculate a fair value of $12.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCEW?
Our models span a range for New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited: cautious scenario $9.19, base $12.25, optimistic $15.31 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $16.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
Balance-sheet figures for New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −146.2%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCEW from its 52-week high?
New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited trades at $16.51, about 20% below its 52-week high of $20.70 and 449% above the low of $3.01 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $16.51, calculated fair value $12.25 (−26%), Quality Score 29/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $16.51. Our estimate is $12.25, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
The market capitalisation of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is $52.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is 1.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
Earnings per share at New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited are $−3.09. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
The net margin of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is −17.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is −146% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is −1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
The operating margin of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW)?
Revenue at New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is growing +33.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −57.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW) generate?
The free cash flow of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is −$445K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW) carry?
The net debt of New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited is $317K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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