Nutrien Ltd (NTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nutrien Ltd stock $83.09, price $69.42, upside +19.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.87 – $97.73 · fair‑value band $49.10 – $108.02 · the $69.42 price screens below the $83.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate.
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The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and financing services and solutions; and produces proprietary products, including proprietary crop nutrient, crop protection, and seed products.
The Potash segment includes mining and processing of potash. The Nitrogen segment owns and operates ammonia production facilities that offers ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate (UAN), urea solutions, nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate, as well as environmentally smart nitrogen and ammonium sulfate.
The Phosphate segment manufactures and sells solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers, phosphate feed, and purified phosphoric acid, which is used in feed and industrial products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
Stock analysis
Nutrien Ltd (NTR) currently trades at $69.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $83.09, implying the stock looks roughly 16.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $90.34 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $69.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.14, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $49.10 (bear) to $108.02 (bull), the price of $69.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nutrien Ltd reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $27.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025, compounding −7.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $33.3B Large · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 1.22 · EPS (TTM) $4.87 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 20%, NTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$49.10Fair Value $83.09Bull$108.02
Price $69.42 · Upside +19.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.7% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+23.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.3% vs 2.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.6% a year for the price and −1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale offers Nutrien a moderate moat in agricultural inputs, yet weak product differentiation in a commodity market remains its core limitation.
Main risk: Class action lawsuits and DOJ investigations into alleged price coordination could result in fines, settlements or operational restrictions that reduce margins on nitrogen, phosphate and potash sales.
Bull case: The company could successfully navigate antitrust proceedings while leveraging its low-cost Saskatchewan potash assets and retail network to sustain volumes despite added supply from new mines.
Bear case: If antitrust actions impose restrictions or new low-cost supply floods the market, the company could face sustained margin compression and reduced demand for its core fertilizer products.
Nutrien is ending its Trinidad nitrogen operations due to persistent natural gas constraints that had already led to a shutdown last year. This step targets better free cash flow and capital returns by concentrating on its North American sites. Our models see the company as undervalued, but will the gains from this rationalization outweigh the risks from volatile fertilizer markets?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 163 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+19.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)17.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nutrien Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTR
Frequently asked questions
Is Nutrien Ltd (NTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $83.09 versus a price of $69.42, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NTR?
Our model-based fair value for Nutrien Ltd is $83.09 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $69.42.
What is the quality score of NTR?
Nutrien Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $83.09 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $49.10, optimistic scenario $108.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nutrien Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $83.09, about +20% upside versus a price of $69.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $49.10, optimistic scenario $108.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
Nutrien Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Nutrien Ltd pay a dividend?
Nutrien Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nutrien Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +10.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTR use?
Our models discount Nutrien Ltd at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nutrien Ltd that is +10.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nutrien Ltd (NTR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nutrien Ltd grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies +10.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nutrien Ltd (NTR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nutrien Ltd (+10.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.12 %: that much free cash flow Nutrien Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nutrien Ltd it is $83.09 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $69.42. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nutrien Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, NTR trades below its calculated fair value: price $69.42, fair value $83.09, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($69.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($83.09). For Nutrien Ltd the two are $13.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nutrien Ltd worth?
The market values Nutrien Ltd at about $33.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $69.42; our models calculate a fair value of $83.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTR?
Our models span a range for Nutrien Ltd: cautious scenario $49.10, base $83.09, optimistic $108.02 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $69.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTR?
Nutrien Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $83.09 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 16.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
What is the PEG ratio of NTR?
The PEG ratio of Nutrien Ltd is 1.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nutrien Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTR from its 52-week high?
Nutrien Ltd trades at $69.42, about 15% below its 52-week high of $81.96 and 34% above the low of $51.92 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $83.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nutrien Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nutrien Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $69.42, calculated fair value $83.09 (+20%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTR calculated?
We run Nutrien Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $83.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Nutrien Ltd currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $69.42. Our model-based fair value is $83.09, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nutrien Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range ($49.10 to $108.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Nutrien Ltd (NTR) come from?
Earnings per share at Nutrien Ltd grew −1.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.5 %, EBIT margin −7.2 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nutrien Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
The market capitalisation of Nutrien Ltd is $33.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nutrien Ltd is 1.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
Earnings per share at Nutrien Ltd are $4.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
The dividend yield of Nutrien Ltd is 3.2% (payout 45.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
The net margin of Nutrien Ltd is 8.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nutrien Ltd is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nutrien Ltd is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
The operating margin of Nutrien Ltd is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
Revenue at Nutrien Ltd is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
Earnings per share at Nutrien Ltd are growing +1.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nutrien Ltd (NTR) carry?
The net debt of Nutrien Ltd is $12.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026