Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rocky Brands Inc stock $27.56, price $51.34, that is 46.3% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.52 – $54.60 · fair‑value band $13.43 – $48.22 · the $51.34 price screens above the $27.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Rocky Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets footwear and apparel in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Wholesale, Retail, and Contract Manufacturing segments.
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The Wholesale segment offers products, which includes sporting goods stores, outdoor retailers, independent shoe retailers, hardware stores, mass merchants, uniform stores, farm store chains, specialty safety stores, specialty retailers, and online retailers in retail locations through a range of distribution channels.
Its Retail segment sells its products direct sales to consumers through its websites comprising rockyboots.com, georgiaboot.com, durangoboot.com, muckbootcompany.com, xtratuf.com, lehighoutfitters.com, lehighsafetyshoes.com, and slipgrips.com; and third-party marketplaces and Rocky Outdoor Gear Stores.
The Contract Manufacturing segment include private label sales and sales to customers which are contracted to manufacture a specific footwear product for a customers. This segment also sells to the U.S. Military.
It serves industrial and construction workers; hospitality industry workers, such as restaurants or hotels; farmers and ranchers; hunting, fishing, camping, and hiking enthusiasts; law enforcement, security personnel, and postal employees; and for the U.S. military personnel.
The company sells its products under the Rocky, Georgia Boot, Durango, Lehigh, Muck, XTRATUF, Ranger, and Michelin brand names. The company was formerly known as William Brooks Shoe Co. Rocky Brands, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Nelsonville, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY) currently trades at $51.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.56, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $57.01 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $51.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.05, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.43 (bear) to $48.22 (bull), the price of $51.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Rocky Brands Inc reported revenue of $482M in FY2025 versus $514M in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $22.3M in FY2025, compounding +2.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $391M Small · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) $4.24 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at −46%, RCKY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.43Fair Value $27.56Bull$48.22
Price $51.34 · Downside -46.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.09 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $24,315, on Jul 30, 2026. Over the same period, 7 people sold shares worth $1.2M.
SaleRobert Burton Moore Jr.Director3,000 shares at $49.73$149,190Aug 5, 2026
SaleCurtis A LovelandAssistant Secretary, Director2× since Jul 30, 2026: 6,483 shares, avg. $50.11$324,891Aug 4, 2026
SaleWilliam L JordanDirector2× since Jul 31, 2026: 3,000 shares, avg. $49.60$148,793Aug 4, 2026
SaleRobyn R. HahnDirector2× since Nov 26, 2025: 6,800 shares, avg. $39.56$269,038Aug 4, 2026
SaleMichael L FinnDirector3,000 shares at $50.97$152,910Aug 3, 2026
SaleTracie A. WinbiglerDirector3,000 shares at $47.45$142,350Jul 31, 2026
BuyDwight Eric SmithDirector500 shares at $48.63$24,315Jul 30, 2026
SaleG Courtney HaningDirector3,000 shares at $49.06$147,180Jul 30, 2026
Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.3% vs 10.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 8%
2025 sits 94% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−46.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.5% · Above median
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
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Is Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.56 versus a price of $51.34, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RCKY?
Our model-based fair value for Rocky Brands Inc is $27.56 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $51.34.
What is the quality score of RCKY?
Rocky Brands Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.56 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.43, optimistic scenario $48.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rocky Brands Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.56, about 46% lower versus a price of $51.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.43, optimistic scenario $48.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
Rocky Brands Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $505M (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Rocky Brands Inc pay a dividend?
Rocky Brands Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Rocky Brands Inc pays a dividend of $0.635 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. The payout ratio is 15.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.04 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rocky Brands Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +38.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.7 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RCKY use?
Our models discount Rocky Brands Inc at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 2.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rocky Brands Inc that is +38.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rocky Brands Inc grew +11.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +38.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rocky Brands Inc (+38.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.49 %: that much free cash flow Rocky Brands Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rocky Brands Inc it is $27.56 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $51.34. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Rocky Brands Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, RCKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $51.34, fair value $27.56, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RCKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($51.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.56). For Rocky Brands Inc the two are $23.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rocky Brands Inc worth?
The market values Rocky Brands Inc at about $391M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $51.34; our models calculate a fair value of $27.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RCKY?
Our models span a range for Rocky Brands Inc: cautious scenario $13.43, base $27.56, optimistic $48.22 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $51.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RCKY?
Rocky Brands Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.56 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2023, FY2024 ex one-offs: 12.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
What is the PEG ratio of RCKY?
The PEG ratio of Rocky Brands Inc is 1.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rocky Brands Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RCKY from its 52-week high?
Rocky Brands Inc trades at $51.34, about 6% below its 52-week high of $54.60 and 81% above the low of $28.34 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rocky Brands Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, adidas AG, On Holding, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rocky Brands Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $51.34, calculated fair value $27.56 (−46%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RCKY calculated?
We run Rocky Brands Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $27.56 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Rocky Brands Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $51.34. Our model-based fair value is $27.56, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rocky Brands Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($48.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($13.43 to $48.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY) come from?
Earnings per share at Rocky Brands Inc grew +6.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Rocky Brands Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
The market capitalisation of Rocky Brands Inc is $391M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rocky Brands Inc is 0.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
Earnings per share at Rocky Brands Inc are $4.24 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
The dividend yield of Rocky Brands Inc is 1.2% (payout 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
The net margin of Rocky Brands Inc is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rocky Brands Inc is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rocky Brands Inc is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
The operating margin of Rocky Brands Inc is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
Revenue at Rocky Brands Inc is growing +12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)?
Earnings per share at Rocky Brands Inc are growing +281% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY) carry?
The net debt of Rocky Brands Inc is $124M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026