Riskified Ltd (RSKD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Riskified Ltd stock $5.15, price $8.54, that is 39.7% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.63 – $36.92 · fair‑value band $3.67 – $7.26 · the $8.54 price screens above the $5.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow Riskified in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Riskified is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Riskified Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and offers an e-commerce risk intelligent platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas.
Show moreShow less
It offers Chargeback Guarantee that ensures the legitimacy of merchants' online orders; Dispute Resolve, which is used to compile submissions for fraud and non-fraud related chargeback issues; Policy Protect, a machine learning solution designed to detect and prevent refund and returns policy abuse in real-time; Account Secure, a solution that cross-checks every login attempt; and PSD2 optimization that helps total conversion and reduce cart abandonment.
It serves direct-to-consumer brands, online-only retailers, omnichannel retailers, online marketplaces, and e-commerce service providers in various industries, such as payments, money transfer, tickets and travel, electronics, home, and fashion and luxury goods.
The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Riskified Ltd (RSKD) currently trades at $8.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.15, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $5.36 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $8.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.72, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.67 (bear) to $7.26 (bull), the price of $8.54 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Riskified Ltd reported revenue of $345M in FY2025 versus $229M in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$27.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B Small · P/S ratio 3.31 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin −4.2% · Return on equity −5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −7.5% · Revenue (TTM) $368M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −40%, RSKD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.67Fair Value $5.15Bull$7.26
Price $8.54 · Downside -39.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleEido GalChief Executive Officer, Director, 10% owner150,000 shares at $6.48$972,000Sep 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAssaf FeldmanChief Strategy Officer - Tech, Director, 10% owner5× since May 1, 2026: 995,690 shares, avg. $5.84$5.8MSep 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAglika DotchevaChief Financial Officer5× since May 19, 2026: 320,000 shares, avg. $5.93$1.9MAug 14, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.0% (2020) → −8.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.9% a year for the price and +8.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 628 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−39.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−6.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−7.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Riskified Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RSKD
Frequently asked questions
Is Riskified Ltd (RSKD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.15 versus a price of $8.54, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RSKD?
Our model-based fair value for Riskified Ltd is $5.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.54.
What is the quality score of RSKD?
Riskified Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.67, optimistic scenario $7.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Riskified Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.15, about 40% lower versus a price of $8.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.67, optimistic scenario $7.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
Riskified Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $368M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Riskified Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RSKD use?
Our models discount Riskified Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Riskified Ltd that is +20.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Riskified Ltd (RSKD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Riskified Ltd grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Riskified Ltd (RSKD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Riskified Ltd (+20.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.78 %: that much free cash flow Riskified Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Riskified Ltd it is $5.15 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $8.54. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Riskified Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, RSKD trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.54, fair value $5.15, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RSKD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.15). For Riskified Ltd the two are $3.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Riskified Ltd worth?
The market values Riskified Ltd at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $8.54; our models calculate a fair value of $5.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RSKD?
Our models span a range for Riskified Ltd: cautious scenario $3.67, base $5.15, optimistic $7.26 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $8.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Riskified Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −5.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RSKD from its 52-week high?
Riskified Ltd trades at $8.54, about 7% below its 52-week high of $9.22 and 125% above the low of $3.79 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Riskified Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Riskified Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $8.54, calculated fair value $5.15 (−40%), Quality Score 72/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RSKD calculated?
We run Riskified Ltd through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.15 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Riskified Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $8.54. Our model-based fair value is $5.15, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Riskified Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (72/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.67 to $7.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Riskified Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
The market capitalisation of Riskified Ltd is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Riskified Ltd is 3.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
Earnings per share at Riskified Ltd are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
The net margin of Riskified Ltd is −4.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Riskified Ltd is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Riskified Ltd is −11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
The operating margin of Riskified Ltd is −7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Riskified Ltd (RSKD)?
Revenue at Riskified Ltd is growing +21.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Riskified Ltd (RSKD) hold?
Riskified Ltd holds more cash than debt, $137M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Riskified Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Riskified Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 6, 2026