Riskified Ltd (RSKD) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $713M
Riskified Ltd
RSKD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $8.76 to $4.08 (−53.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.63 – $36.92 · fair‑value band $3.15 – $5.01 · the $5.35 price screens above the $4.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Riskified Ltd (RSKD) currently trades at $5.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.08, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Riskified Ltd generated revenue of $351M at a net margin of -5.2%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $137M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.15 (bear case) to $5.01 (bull case); at $5.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -24%, RSKD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($4.44) versus Asset-Based ($1.25). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Riskified Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and offers an e-commerce risk intelligent platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas.
Full company description
Riskified Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and offers an e-commerce risk intelligent platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. It offers Chargeback Guarantee that ensures the legitimacy of merchants' online orders; Dispute Resolve, which is used to compile submissions for fraud and non-fraud related chargeback issues; Policy Protect, a machine learning solution designed to detect and prevent refund and returns policy abuse in real-time; Account Secure, a solution that cross-checks every login attempt; and PSD2 optimization that helps total conversion and reduce cart abandonment. It serves direct-to-consumer brands, online-only retailers, omnichannel retailers, online marketplaces, and e-commerce service providers in various industries, such as payments, money transfer, tickets and travel, electronics, home, and fashion and luxury goods. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Riskified Ltd reported revenue of $345M in FY2025 versus $229M in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$27.6M in FY2025.
RSKD screens 24% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Riskified and Marqeta Partner to Sharpen Card Issuer Authorization Decisions and Help Reduce False Declines
- Riskified (RSKD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
- Riskified Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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