Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shoprite Holdings Ltd stock ZAR 323, price ZAR 340, that is 5.0% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R134.78 – R342.44 · fair‑value band R242.41 – R404.02 · the R340.41 price screens above the R323.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Shoprite Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in the food retail and wholesale business in South Africa and internationally. It operates through four segments: Supermarkets RSA, Supermarkets Non-RSA, and Other Operating segments.
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The company also offers clothing, general merchandise, cosmetics, and liquor products. In addition, it distributes various pharmaceutical products and surgical equipment to pharmacies, hospitals, clinics, dispensing doctors, and veterinary surgeons.
In addition, it operates furniture stores retailing products, such as furniture, household appliances, and home entertainment systems.
The company operates stores under the Shoprite, Checkers, Checkers Hyper, Usave, Checkers Foods, OK Furniture, House & Home, Shoprite LiquorShop, OK Franchise, Checkers LiquorShop, MediRite, UNIQ, Petshop Science, Checkers Outdoor, Transpharm, Checkers Little Me, Freshmark, Red Star Wholesale, Rainmaker, K'nect, Shoprite Send, Shoprite Cash & Carry, Computicket, Pingo, Shoprite Sixty60 and Checkers Sixty60 brands.
The company also operates franchise stores. Further, it provides ticketing, and car rental and accommodation services; stadium management, capacity management, travel management, and access control solutions; and credit financing, financial, and treasury management services.
Additionally, it invests in properties; and sells products to franchisees under drop-shipment arrangements. Shoprite Holdings Ltd was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Brackenfell, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP) currently trades at R340.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R323.22, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R468.68 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the R340.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R34.69, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R242.41 (bear) to R404.02 (bull), the price of R340.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Shoprite Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 271B ZAR in FY2026 versus 184B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was 7.9B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 185B ZAR Large · P/E ratio 22.8 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) R14.94 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 25.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −5%, SHP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR242.41Fair Value R323.22BullR404.02
Price R340.41 · Downside -5.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.39 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.9% vs 5.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.3% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (18 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−5.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)2.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Is Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R323.22 versus a price of R340.41, about 5% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SHP?
Our model-based fair value for Shoprite Holdings Ltd is R323.22 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R340.41.
What is the quality score of SHP?
Shoprite Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R323.22 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R242.41, optimistic scenario R404.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shoprite Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R323.22, about 5% lower versus a price of R340.41 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R242.41, optimistic scenario R404.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
Shoprite Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 271B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Shoprite Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Shoprite Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shoprite Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.0 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHP use?
Our models discount Shoprite Holdings Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shoprite Holdings Ltd that is +5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shoprite Holdings Ltd grew +10.0 % a year. The price currently implies +5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shoprite Holdings Ltd (+5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.34 %: that much free cash flow Shoprite Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shoprite Holdings Ltd it is R323.22 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of R340.41. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shoprite Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, SHP trades above its calculated fair value: price R340.41, fair value R323.22, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R340.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R323.22). For Shoprite Holdings Ltd the two are R17.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shoprite Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Shoprite Holdings Ltd at about 185B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is R340.41; our models calculate a fair value of R323.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHP?
Our models span a range for Shoprite Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R242.41, base R323.22, optimistic R404.02 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price R340.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHP?
Shoprite Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.8 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R323.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 20.4. Other multiples: PEG 98.4, P/B 5.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SHP?
The PEG ratio of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 98.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shoprite Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 25.4%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHP from its 52-week high?
Shoprite Holdings Ltd trades at R340.41, about 1% below its 52-week high of R342.44 and 34% above the low of R253.93 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R323.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shoprite Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shoprite Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price R340.41, calculated fair value R323.22 (−5%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHP calculated?
We run Shoprite Holdings Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R323.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Shoprite Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was R340.41. Our model-based fair value is R323.22, about 5% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shoprite Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP) come from?
Earnings per share at Shoprite Holdings Ltd grew +4.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.0 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shoprite Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
The market capitalisation of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 185B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 0.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
Earnings per share at Shoprite Holdings Ltd are R14.94 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
The dividend yield of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 2.4% (payout 53.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
The net margin of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 11.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
The operating margin of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
Revenue at Shoprite Holdings Ltd is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP)?
Earnings per share at Shoprite Holdings Ltd are growing +9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shoprite Holdings Ltd (SHP) carry?
The net debt of Shoprite Holdings Ltd is 43.0B ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026