Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sleep Cycle AB stock SEK 72.60, price SEK 24.20, upside +200.0%, quality 82 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 14.77 – kr 78.06 · fair‑value band kr 42.14 – kr 89.65 · the kr 24.20 price screens below the kr 72.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Sleep Cycle AB (publ) engages in the development of sleep analysis applications in Sweden and internationally. It offers Sleep Cycle, an application that provides sleep-related solutions, including smart alarm, sleep stages and aid, and sound recordings; and Luma, an AI-driven sleep coach.
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The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) currently trades at kr 24.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 72.60, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 78.76 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 24.20 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 27.87, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 42.14 (bear) to kr 89.65 (bull), the price of kr 24.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sleep Cycle AB reported revenue of 248M SEK in FY2025 versus 183M SEK in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was 53.2M SEK in FY2025, compounding +60.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 491M SEK (≈ $49.7M) Micro · P/E ratio 41.0 · P/S ratio 2.32 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.5900 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, SLEEP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 42.14Fair Value kr 72.60Bullkr 89.65
Price kr 24.20 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.0513 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 29%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets26.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)29.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−17.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sleep Cycle AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SLEEP
Frequently asked questions
Is Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 72.60 versus a price of kr 24.20, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SLEEP?
Our model-based fair value for Sleep Cycle AB is kr 72.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 24.20.
What is the quality score of SLEEP?
Sleep Cycle AB has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 72.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 42.14, optimistic scenario kr 89.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sleep Cycle AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 72.60, about +200% upside versus a price of kr 24.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 42.14, optimistic scenario kr 89.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Sleep Cycle AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 211M SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Sleep Cycle AB pay a dividend?
Sleep Cycle AB currently shows a dividend yield of 2.19% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Sleep Cycle AB pays a dividend of kr 0.53 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 14, 2026. The payout ratio is 89.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.92 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sleep Cycle AB would have to grow free cash flow by -12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SLEEP use?
Our models discount Sleep Cycle AB at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sleep Cycle AB that is -12.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sleep Cycle AB grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -12.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sleep Cycle AB (-12.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.78 %: that much free cash flow Sleep Cycle AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sleep Cycle AB it is kr 72.60 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of kr 24.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sleep Cycle AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SLEEP trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 24.20, fair value kr 72.60, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SLEEP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 24.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 72.60). For Sleep Cycle AB the two are kr 48.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sleep Cycle AB worth?
The market values Sleep Cycle AB at about 491M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is kr 24.20; our models calculate a fair value of kr 72.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SLEEP?
Our models span a range for Sleep Cycle AB: cautious scenario kr 42.14, base kr 72.60, optimistic kr 89.65 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price kr 24.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SLEEP?
Sleep Cycle AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 72.60 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 17.0. Other multiples: P/B 6.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sleep Cycle AB (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 19.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SLEEP from its 52-week high?
Sleep Cycle AB trades at kr 24.20, about 8% below its 52-week high of kr 26.30 and 64% above the low of kr 14.77 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 72.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sleep Cycle AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sleep Cycle AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price kr 24.20, calculated fair value kr 72.60 (+200%), Quality Score 82/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SLEEP calculated?
We run Sleep Cycle AB through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 72.60 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Sleep Cycle AB currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 24.20. Our model-based fair value is kr 72.60, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sleep Cycle AB right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (82/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 42.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 42.14 to kr 89.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sleep Cycle AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The market capitalisation of Sleep Cycle AB is 491M SEK (≈ $49.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sleep Cycle AB is 2.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Earnings per share at Sleep Cycle AB are kr 0.5900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The dividend yield of Sleep Cycle AB is 2.2% (payout 89.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The net margin of Sleep Cycle AB is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sleep Cycle AB is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sleep Cycle AB is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The operating margin of Sleep Cycle AB is 29.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Revenue at Sleep Cycle AB is growing −17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Earnings per share at Sleep Cycle AB are growing −92.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) hold?
Sleep Cycle AB holds more cash than debt, 113M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026