Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Sleep Cycle AB SEK 59.49, price SEK 21.65, upside +174.8%, quality 82 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 14.77 – kr 78.28 · fair‑value band kr 40.64 – kr 90.63 · the kr 21.65 price screens below the kr 59.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sleep Cycle AB (publ) engages in the development of sleep analysis applications in Sweden and internationally. It offers Sleep Cycle, an application that provides sleep-related solutions, including smart alarm, sleep stages and aid, and sound recordings; and Luma, an AI-driven sleep coach.
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Sleep Cycle AB (publ) engages in the development of sleep analysis applications in Sweden and internationally. It offers Sleep Cycle, an application that provides sleep-related solutions, including smart alarm, sleep stages and aid, and sound recordings; and Luma, an AI-driven sleep coach. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) currently trades at kr 21.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 59.49, implying the stock looks roughly 63.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 59.49 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 21.65 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 25.37, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 40.64 (bear) to kr 90.63 (bull), the price of kr 21.65 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sleep Cycle AB reported revenue of 248M SEK in FY2025 versus 183M SEK in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was 53.2M SEK in FY2025, compounding +60.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 502M SEK (≈ $50.6M) · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 2.10 · EPS (TTM) kr 2.21 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 21.5% · Return on equity 52.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 175%, SLEEP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 40.64Fair Value kr 59.49Bull kr 90.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 29%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+173% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)53% · Top 25%
Return on assets15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sleep Cycle AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SLEEP
Frequently asked questions
Is Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 59.49 versus a price of kr 21.65, about +175% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SLEEP?
Our model-based fair value for Sleep Cycle AB is kr 59.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 21.65.
What is the quality score of SLEEP?
Sleep Cycle AB has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 59.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 40.64, optimistic scenario kr 90.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sleep Cycle AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 59.49, about +175% upside versus a price of kr 21.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 40.64, optimistic scenario kr 90.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Sleep Cycle AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 236M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Sleep Cycle AB pay a dividend?
Sleep Cycle AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sleep Cycle AB would have to grow free cash flow by -9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SLEEP use?
Our models discount Sleep Cycle AB at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sleep Cycle AB that is -9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sleep Cycle AB grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies -9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sleep Cycle AB (-9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.05 %: that much free cash flow Sleep Cycle AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sleep Cycle AB it is kr 59.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 21.65. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sleep Cycle AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SLEEP trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 21.65, fair value kr 59.49, a gap of about +175% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SLEEP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 21.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 59.49). For Sleep Cycle AB the two are kr 37.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sleep Cycle AB worth?
The market values Sleep Cycle AB at about 502M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 21.65; our models calculate a fair value of kr 59.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SLEEP?
Our models span a range for Sleep Cycle AB: cautious scenario kr 40.64, base kr 59.49, optimistic kr 90.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 21.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SLEEP?
Sleep Cycle AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 59.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.0, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sleep Cycle AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 52.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SLEEP from its 52-week high?
Sleep Cycle AB trades at kr 21.65, about 23% below its 52-week high of kr 28.04 and 47% above the low of kr 14.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 59.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sleep Cycle AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sleep Cycle AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 21.65, calculated fair value kr 59.49 (+175%), Quality Score 82/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SLEEP calculated?
We run Sleep Cycle AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 59.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Sleep Cycle AB currently trades 175 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 21.65. Our model-based fair value is kr 59.49, about +175% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sleep Cycle AB right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (82/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 40.64). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (kr 40.64 to kr 90.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sleep Cycle AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The market capitalisation of Sleep Cycle AB is 502M SEK (≈ $50.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sleep Cycle AB is 2.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Earnings per share at Sleep Cycle AB are kr 2.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The dividend yield of Sleep Cycle AB is 2.4% (payout 24.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The net margin of Sleep Cycle AB is 21.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sleep Cycle AB is 52.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sleep Cycle AB is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
The operating margin of Sleep Cycle AB is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Revenue at Sleep Cycle AB is growing −19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP)?
Earnings per share at Sleep Cycle AB are growing −60.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) hold?
Sleep Cycle AB holds more cash than debt, 113M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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