Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S stock DKK 112, price DKK 77.00, upside +45.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 60.69 – kr 116.95 · fair‑value band kr 67.45 – kr 169.61 · the kr 77.00 price screens below the kr 112.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S manufactures and sells tobacco products in North America, Europe, and internationally. It offers pipe and fine-cut tobacco, and machine-rolled and handmade cigars, as well as nicotine pouches.
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The company markets its products under the Macanudo, CAO, Alec Bradley, Silencio, Cohiba, Punch, Partagas, La Gloria Cubana, Signature, La Paz, Mehari's, Panter, Captain Black, Erinmore, Mac Baren, BREAK, Bali Shag, Tiedemanns, XQS, Ambasciator Italico, Balmoral, Borkum Riff, Bugler, Café Crème, Clan, Colts, Crossroad, Cubero, Escort, Hajenius, Henri Wintermans, Kite, M by Colts, ACE, GRITT, Mercator, Petit, SLS SALSA, Stanwell, Talon, W.Ø. Larsen, and Winchester brand names.
In addition, it offers contract manufacturing for third parties; and sells accessories. The company sells its products through wholesale, online, catalogue, and retail channels, as well as business to business. Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S was founded in 1750 and is based in Gentofte, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG) currently trades at kr 77.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 112.11, implying the stock looks roughly 31% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 178.48 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 77.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 82.60, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 67.45 (bear) to kr 169.61 (bull), the price of kr 77.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S reported revenue of 9.0B DKK in FY2025 versus 8.2B DKK in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 669M DKK in FY2025, compounding −16.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.1B DKK (≈ $908M) Small · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) kr 8.30 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 7.3% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 46%, STG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 67.45Fair Value kr 112.11Bullkr 169.61
Price kr 77.00 · Upside +45.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 3.26 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.6% vs −4.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.8% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (45 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 29 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside+45.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.8% · Below median
Return on assets4.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.71× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STG
Frequently asked questions
Is Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 112.11 versus a price of kr 77.00, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of STG?
Our model-based fair value for Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is kr 112.11 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 77.00.
What is the quality score of STG?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 112.11 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 67.45, optimistic scenario kr 169.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 112.11, about +46% upside versus a price of kr 77.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 67.45, optimistic scenario kr 169.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.9B DKK (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S pay a dividend?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S currently shows a dividend yield of 5.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S pays a dividend of kr 4.50 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2016. The payout ratio is 54.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.72 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STG use?
Our models discount Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S that is +10.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S grew +2.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (+10.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.04 %: that much free cash flow Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S it is kr 112.11 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of kr 77.00. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, STG trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 77.00, fair value kr 112.11, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 77.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 112.11). For Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S the two are kr 35.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S worth?
The market values Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S at about 6.1B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is kr 77.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 112.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STG?
Our models span a range for Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S: cautious scenario kr 67.45, base kr 112.11, optimistic kr 169.61 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price kr 77.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STG?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 112.11 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.7. Other multiples: PEG 257.8, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of STG?
The PEG ratio of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 257.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STG from its 52-week high?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S trades at kr 77.00, about 20% below its 52-week high of kr 96.73 and 27% above the low of kr 60.69 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 112.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, Altria Group, British American Tobacco p.l.c., ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price kr 77.00, calculated fair value kr 112.11 (+46%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STG calculated?
We run Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 112.11 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S currently trades 31% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 77.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 112.11, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 67.45 to kr 169.61) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG) come from?
Earnings per share at Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S grew −1.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.0 %, EBIT margin +1.6 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
The market capitalisation of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 6.1B DKK (≈ $908M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 0.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
Earnings per share at Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S are kr 8.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
The dividend yield of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 5.8% (payout 54.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
The net margin of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 7.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
The operating margin of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
Revenue at Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is growing −1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG)?
Earnings per share at Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S are growing −3.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG) carry?
The net debt of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S is 5.3B DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026