Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Steel Dynamics Inc stock $89.54, price $222, that is 59.6% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.94 – $281.45 · fair‑value band $56.69 – $164.32 · the $221.90 price screens above the $89.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Steel Dynamics in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Steel Dynamics is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations.
Show moreShow less
The Steel Operations segment offers hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing steel bars, standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars; channels, angles, flats, merchant rounds, and reinforcing steel bars; and specialty shapes and light structural steel products.
This segment also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, energy, and pipe and tube markets.
The Metals Recycling Operations segment is involved in the ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services.
Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals.
The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces steel non-residential building components, such as steel joists, joist girders, and steel deck products for non-residential steel fabricators, metal building companies, general construction contractors, developers, property owners, brokers, and governmental entities.
The Aluminum Operations segment offers recycled aluminum flat rolled products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) currently trades at $221.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $89.54, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $128.76 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $221.90 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $28.06, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $56.69 (bear) to $164.32 (bull), the price of $221.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Steel Dynamics Inc reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $18.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −22.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $31.2B Large · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) $13.54 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 20.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −60%, STLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$56.69Fair Value $89.54Bull$164.32
Price $221.90 · Downside -59.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.72 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $17.8M and none bought.
SaleBarry SchneiderExecutive Vice President & CTO50,000 shares at $248.91$12.4MNov 3, 2026
SaleJames Stanley AndersonSenior Vice President10,000 shares at $268.70$2.7MJun 5, 2026
SaleChristopher A GrahamSenior Vice President9,000 shares at $236.81$2.1MMay 13, 2026
SaleRichard A PoinsatteSenior Vice President2,300 shares at $234.11$538,453May 12, 2026
SaleKenneth W. CornewDirector5,000 shares at $224.87$1.1MApr 23, 2026
SaleMiguel AlvarezSenior Vice President4,825 shares at $225.58$1.1MApr 23, 2026
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.3% vs 21.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.8% a year for the price and +5.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Steel Dynamics gains from aluminum mill expansion outside the steel cycle, yet limited moat and cyclical profitability remain key constraints on durability.
Main risk: The aluminum operations depend on a core group of significant customers, so loss of orders or qualification issues with them could limit shipments and prevent the expected earnings contribution from the new mill.
Bull case: The company could broaden its aluminum customer base through successful qualifications and leverage its low-cost EAF model plus tariffs to maintain steel margins while the new mill adds steadier earnings.
Bear case: If key aluminum customers do not ramp volumes or switch suppliers and imports increase, the mill could remain unprofitable and steel margins could face sustained pressure from cheaper foreign supply.
Steel Dynamics expects markedly stronger results from its core steel operations in the coming quarter, driven by wider margins and record shipments in a healthy demand environment. Meanwhile the company is ramping up its new aluminum flat-rolled mill, which adds a growth avenue outside the steel cycle. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the aluminum expansion deliver enough incremental profit to offset the usual swings in steel margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 407 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−59.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $89.54 versus a price of $221.90, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STLD?
Our model-based fair value for Steel Dynamics Inc is $89.54 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $221.90.
What is the quality score of STLD?
Steel Dynamics Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $89.54 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.69, optimistic scenario $164.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Steel Dynamics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $89.54, about 60% lower versus a price of $221.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $56.69, optimistic scenario $164.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
Steel Dynamics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $22.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Steel Dynamics Inc pay a dividend?
Steel Dynamics Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Steel Dynamics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +35.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.6 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STLD use?
Our models discount Steel Dynamics Inc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Steel Dynamics Inc that is +35.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Steel Dynamics Inc grew +13.6 % a year. The price currently implies +35.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Steel Dynamics Inc (+35.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.57 %: that much free cash flow Steel Dynamics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Steel Dynamics Inc it is $89.54 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $221.90. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Steel Dynamics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, STLD trades above its calculated fair value: price $221.90, fair value $89.54, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($221.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($89.54). For Steel Dynamics Inc the two are $132.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Steel Dynamics Inc worth?
The market values Steel Dynamics Inc at about $31.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $221.90; our models calculate a fair value of $89.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STLD?
Our models span a range for Steel Dynamics Inc: cautious scenario $56.69, base $89.54, optimistic $164.32 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $221.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STLD?
Steel Dynamics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $89.54 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 11.4. Other multiples: PEG 10.9, P/B 3.5, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
What is the PEG ratio of STLD?
The PEG ratio of Steel Dynamics Inc is 10.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Steel Dynamics Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 20.8%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STLD from its 52-week high?
Steel Dynamics Inc trades at $221.90, about 21% below its 52-week high of $281.45 and 48% above the low of $150.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $89.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Steel Dynamics Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Steel Dynamics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $221.90, calculated fair value $89.54 (−60%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STLD calculated?
We run Steel Dynamics Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $89.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Steel Dynamics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $221.90. Our model-based fair value is $89.54, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Steel Dynamics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($164.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($56.69 to $164.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) come from?
Earnings per share at Steel Dynamics Inc grew +29.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.6 %, EBIT margin +7.4 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Steel Dynamics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
The market capitalisation of Steel Dynamics Inc is $31.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Steel Dynamics Inc is 1.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
Earnings per share at Steel Dynamics Inc are $13.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
The dividend yield of Steel Dynamics Inc is 0.9% (payout 15.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
The net margin of Steel Dynamics Inc is 8.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Steel Dynamics Inc is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Steel Dynamics Inc is 22.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
The operating margin of Steel Dynamics Inc is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
Revenue at Steel Dynamics Inc is growing +34.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)?
Earnings per share at Steel Dynamics Inc are growing +92.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) carry?
The net debt of Steel Dynamics Inc is $3.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Steel Dynamics Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Steel Dynamics Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 5, 2026