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Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vinyl Group Ltd stock A$0.04, price A$0.04, that is 11.8% below the price, quality 23 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Technology AU · ISIN AU0000310781

VG Vinyl Group Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Vinyl Group Ltd

VNL · AU
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 12% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +422.2 %/yr in AUD)
Moderate debt
Fair value A$0.0379 · Overvalued
Quality 23/100
Loss-making · -45.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/9)
Narrow moat 9/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.1631 A$0.0158 Fair Value A$0.0379 Apr 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0158 – A$0.1631 · fair‑value band A$0.0346 – A$0.0413 · the A$0.0430 price screens above the A$0.0379 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Vinyl Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on delivering technology and media solutions that connect music creators, fans and brands in Australia, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.

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The company operates vinyl.com, an e-commerce platform with music titles; Vampr, a social-professional network and talent marketplace with creators; Serenade, a Web3 pioneer in physical and digital artists collectibles; and Jaxsta, a database of official music credits.

It offers Vinyl Media that operates as a media arm and publisher of titles, including Rolling Stone Australia, Variety Australia, Concrete Playground, Mediaweek, Tone Deaf, The Music Network, Refinery29, and TheBrag.com.

The company was formerly known as Jaxsta Limited and changed its name to Vinyl Group Ltd in December 2023. Vinyl Group Ltd is based in South Yarra, Australia.

Stock analysis

Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) currently trades at A$0.0430, while our estimate is A$0.0379, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$0.0346 (bear) to A$0.0413 (bull), the price of A$0.0430 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Vinyl Group Ltd reported revenue of A$18.8M in FY2026 versus A$105K in FY2022, a compound +265.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$8.6M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$59.8M (≈ $41.2M) Micro · P/S ratio 2.91 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin −46.0% · Return on equity −47.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −65.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −79.2% · Revenue (TTM) A$18.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −12%, VNL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$0.0346 Fair Value A$0.0379 Bull A$0.0413
Price A$0.0430 · Downside -11.8%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 6
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 37
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 22
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 9
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 12
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+218.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+422.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−143,571.7% (2021) → −48.3% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VNL screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 723 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −11.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −21.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −45.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −79.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.64× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.24× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 3.17× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)17 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)52 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)68 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 28

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Adobe Inc ADBE $236.70 $463.72 +96% vs VNL
Salesforce, Inc CRM $213.48 $342.73 +61% vs VNL
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $70.05 $101.28 +45% vs VNL
Intuit Inc INTU $340.44 $459.14 +35% vs VNL
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $99.61 $112.17 +13% vs VNL
SAP SE SAP €209.95 €173.59 −17% vs VNL
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $331.64 $225.48 −32% vs VNL
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $305.44 $150.40 −51% vs VNL
Shopify Inc SHOP $146.61 $64.96 −56% vs VNL
Snowflake Inc SNOW $295.76 $73.81 −75% vs VNL

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Vinyl Group Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vinyl Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VNL

Frequently asked questions

Is Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$0.0379 versus a price of A$0.0430, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VNL?
Our estimate for Vinyl Group Ltd is A$0.0379 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0430.
What is the quality score of VNL?
Vinyl Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$0.0379 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$0.0346, optimistic scenario A$0.0413. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Vinyl Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$0.0379, about 12% lower versus a price of A$0.0430 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0346, optimistic scenario A$0.0413. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Vinyl Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$18.9M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vinyl Group Ltd it is A$0.0379 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$0.0430.
Is Vinyl Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, VNL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0430, fair value A$0.0379, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0430); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0379). For Vinyl Group Ltd the two are A$0.0051 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vinyl Group Ltd worth?
The market values Vinyl Group Ltd at about A$59.8M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0430; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0379 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VNL?
Our models span a range for Vinyl Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0346, base A$0.0379, optimistic A$0.0413 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$0.0430). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vinyl Group Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −47.4%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VNL from its 52-week high?
Vinyl Group Ltd trades at A$0.0430, about 53% below its 52-week high of A$0.0910 and 54% above the low of A$0.0280 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0379 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vinyl Group Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vinyl Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$0.0430, calculated fair value A$0.0379 (−12%), Quality Score 23/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Vinyl Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was A$0.0430. Our estimate is A$0.0379, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vinyl Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0413). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Vinyl Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The market capitalisation of Vinyl Group Ltd is A$59.8M (≈ $41.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vinyl Group Ltd is 2.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Earnings per share at Vinyl Group Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The net margin of Vinyl Group Ltd is −46.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vinyl Group Ltd is −47.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vinyl Group Ltd is −65.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The operating margin of Vinyl Group Ltd is −79.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Revenue at Vinyl Group Ltd is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +218%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) generate?
The free cash flow of Vinyl Group Ltd is −A$8.0M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) carry?
The net debt of Vinyl Group Ltd is A$10.3M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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