Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Vinyl Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Valuation from Jun 24, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
Watch Vinyl Group Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0158 – A$0.1631 · fair‑value band A$0.0255 – A$0.0510 · the A$0.0390 price screens above the A$0.0340 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
Follow Vinyl Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Vinyl Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Vinyl Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on delivering technology and media solutions that connect music creators, fans and brands in Australia, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Show more
Vinyl Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on delivering technology and media solutions that connect music creators, fans and brands in Australia, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates vinyl.com, an e-commerce platform with music titles; Vampr, a social-professional network and talent marketplace with creators; Serenade, a Web3 pioneer in physical and digital artists collectibles; and Jaxsta, a database of official music credits. It offers Vinyl Media that operates as a media arm and publisher of titles, including Rolling Stone Australia, Variety Australia, Concrete Playground, Mediaweek, Tone Deaf, The Music Network, Refinery29, and TheBrag.com. The company was formerly known as Jaxsta Limited and changed its name to Vinyl Group Ltd in December 2023. Vinyl Group Ltd is based in South Yarra, Australia.
Stock analysis
Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) currently trades at A$0.0390, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0340, implying the stock looks roughly 14.7% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0255 (bear) to A$0.0510 (bull), the price of A$0.0390 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Vinyl Group Ltd reported revenue of A$14.4M in FY2025 versus A$4.8K in FY2021, a compound +638.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$15.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$78.6M (≈ $55.2M) · P/S ratio 4.33 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin −110% · Return on equity −64.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −88.5% · Operating margin −25.4% · Revenue (TTM) A$18.2M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −13%, VNL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0255Fair Value A$0.0340Bull A$0.0510
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+189.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+415.8%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−143,571.7% (2021) → −83.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−13% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−25% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−66% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−25% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth49% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vinyl Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VNL
Frequently asked questions
Is Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0340 versus a price of A$0.0390, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VNL?
Our model-based fair value for Vinyl Group Ltd is A$0.0340 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0390.
What is the quality score of VNL?
Vinyl Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0340 (as of Jun 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0255, optimistic scenario A$0.0510. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vinyl Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0340, about −13% upside versus a price of A$0.0390 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0255, optimistic scenario A$0.0510. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Vinyl Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$18.2M (latest available figure, as of Jun 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vinyl Group Ltd it is A$0.0340 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.0390. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vinyl Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 24, 2026, VNL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0390, fair value A$0.0340, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0390); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0340). For Vinyl Group Ltd the two are A$0.0050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vinyl Group Ltd worth?
The market values Vinyl Group Ltd at about A$78.6M (market capitalisation, as of Jun 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0390; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0340 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VNL?
Our models span a range for Vinyl Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0255, base A$0.0340, optimistic A$0.0510 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026, price A$0.0390). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vinyl Group Ltd (as of Jun 24, 2026): return on equity −64.7%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VNL from its 52-week high?
Vinyl Group Ltd trades at A$0.0390, about 59% below its 52-week high of A$0.0940 and 3% above the low of A$0.0380 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0340 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vinyl Group Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vinyl Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 24, 2026: price A$0.0390, calculated fair value A$0.0340 (−13%), Quality Score 33/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VNL calculated?
We run Vinyl Group Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0340, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Vinyl Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0390. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0340, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vinyl Group Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (A$0.0255 to A$0.0510) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Vinyl Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The market capitalisation of Vinyl Group Ltd is A$78.6M (≈ $55.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vinyl Group Ltd is 4.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Earnings per share at Vinyl Group Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The net margin of Vinyl Group Ltd is −110% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vinyl Group Ltd is −64.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vinyl Group Ltd is −88.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
The operating margin of Vinyl Group Ltd is −25.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL)?
Revenue at Vinyl Group Ltd is growing +49.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +416%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) generate?
The free cash flow of Vinyl Group Ltd is −A$9.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Vinyl Group Ltd (VNL) hold?
Vinyl Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Vinyl Group Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Vinyl Group Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
