Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd stock $6.14, price $8.85, that is 30.6% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.95 – $16.99 · fair‑value band $5.73 – $6.90 · the $8.85 price screens above the $6.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Yakult Honsha Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells food and beverage products in Japan, the Americas, Asia, Oceania, and Europe.
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The company operates through Food and Beverages (Japan), Food and Beverages (The Americas), Food and Beverages (Asia and Oceania), Food and Beverages (Europe), and Others segments.
It offers fermented milk drinks, energy drinks and fermented fruit beverage, plant-derived ingredients, juices, noodles, etc. through its home delivery and retail store channels.
The company also provides pharmaceutical products; offers cosmetics; and operates the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, a professional baseball team. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY) currently trades at $8.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.14, 31% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $10.60 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the $8.85 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.37, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.73 (bear) to $6.90 (bull), the price of $8.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥516B in FY2026 versus ¥415B in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥46.9B in FY2026, compounding +1.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1B Mid · P/E ratio 17.7 · P/S ratio 1.61 · EPS (TTM) $0.5000 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −31%, YKLTY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.73Fair Value $6.14Bull$6.90
Price $8.85 · Downside -30.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3041 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.5% vs 6.4%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%
AI conclusion: The business draws its main strength from overseas operations generating higher profits than the domestic segment, yet its main weak point is negative free cash flow combined with limited moat and weak returns.
Main risk: Continued dependence on foreign markets risks being eroded by higher costs and domestic volume pressure, directly hitting overall profitability and cash generation.
Yakult's overseas segment now generates more profit than the Japanese business, with international earnings reaching 9.8 billion yen against 5.6 billion yen domestically in the first quarter. The pattern shows clear dependence on foreign markets for growth while domestic volumes stay under pressure. Our models see it as overvalued. Can overseas execution keep lifting overall results faster than costs and local weakness erode them?
Compare Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside−30.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.2% · Below median
Return on assets5.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.33× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.65× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.53× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)17· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)53· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YKLTY
Frequently asked questions
Is Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.14 versus a price of $8.85, about 31% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of YKLTY?
Our model-based fair value for Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is $6.14 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.85.
What is the quality score of YKLTY?
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.14 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.73, optimistic scenario $6.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.14, about 31% lower versus a price of $8.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.73, optimistic scenario $6.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥490B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.65% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 2.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 45.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yakult Honsha Co Ltd it is $6.14 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $8.85. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, YKLTY trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.85, fair value $6.14, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YKLTY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.14). For Yakult Honsha Co Ltd the two are $2.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Yakult Honsha Co Ltd at about $5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $8.85; our models calculate a fair value of $6.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YKLTY?
Our models span a range for Yakult Honsha Co Ltd: cautious scenario $5.73, base $6.14, optimistic $6.90 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $8.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YKLTY?
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.7 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of YKLTY?
The PEG ratio of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is 2.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YKLTY from its 52-week high?
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd trades at $8.85, about 9% below its 52-week high of $9.75 and 27% above the low of $6.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $8.85, calculated fair value $6.14 (−31%), Quality Score 56/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YKLTY calculated?
We run Yakult Honsha Co Ltd through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.14 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Yakult Honsha Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $8.85. Our model-based fair value is $6.14, about 31% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yakult Honsha Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY) come from?
Earnings per share at Yakult Honsha Co Ltd grew +7.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
The market capitalisation of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is $5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is 1.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
Earnings per share at Yakult Honsha Co Ltd are $0.5000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
The dividend yield of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is 2.7% (payout 46.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
The net margin of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is 9.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
The operating margin of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
Revenue at Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY)?
Earnings per share at Yakult Honsha Co Ltd are growing +19.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY) generate?
The free cash flow of Yakult Honsha Co Ltd is −¥13.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (YKLTY) hold?
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥118B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 2, 2026