Changsha Tongcheng Holdings (000419) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +7.3% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from ¥3.65 (bear) to ¥5.98 (bull), base ¥4.77. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 56/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.41 – ¥7.90 · fair‑value band ¥3.65 – ¥5.98 · the ¥5.02 price screens above the ¥4.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Changsha Tongcheng Holdings (000419) currently trades at ¥5.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.77, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Changsha Tongcheng Holdings generated revenue of 1.9B CNY at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue declined 20.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 407M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.65 (bear case) to ¥5.98 (bull case); at ¥5.02, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at -5%, 000419 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥4.98) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial retail business in China. The company operates shopping centers, department stores, electrical appliances chains, second-hand luxury goods franchises, and online professional platforms.
Full company description
Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial retail business in China. The company operates shopping centers, department stores, electrical appliances chains, second-hand luxury goods franchises, and online professional platforms. It also provides warehousing and logistics services; pawning, micro loans, commercial factoring, and SME refinancing funds; and financial services. In addition, the company engages in distribution, self-operation, joint venture, and commercial property leasing; and hotel operation center, product operation center, and property management center. Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Changsha, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Changsha Tongcheng Holdings reported revenue of ¥2.0B in FY2025 versus ¥2.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥123M in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −7.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Department Stores · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 5,875 CLP | 8,880 CLP | +51% |
| El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 | 99.62 MXN | 263.70 MXN | +165% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.70 MYR | 1.45 MYR | -61% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 2,040 CLP | 2,516 CLP | +23% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹113.94 | ₹37.39 | -67% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 610,000 KRW | 200,259 KRW | -67% |
| Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB | 30.04 MXN | 59.59 MXN | +98% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 155,300 KRW | 81,725 KRW | -47% |
| Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 | R$14.10 | R$33.36 | +137% |
| La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC | 34.37 MXN | 51.49 MXN | +50% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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