Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd stock ¥13.49, price ¥25.30, that is 46.7% below the price, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.94 – ¥35.23 · fair‑value band ¥9.33 – ¥17.54 · the ¥25.30 price screens above the ¥13.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. produces and sells aluminum primarily in China. It operates through three segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, and Other.
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The company offers cast aluminum alloy ingots; wrought aluminum and aluminum alloy round ingots; wrought aluminum and aluminum alloy flat castings; aluminum home furnishing; aluminum and aluminum alloy welding materials; aluminum alloy welding wires; and electrician round aluminum rod.
It also provides aluminum ingots/refined aluminum ingots for remelting, metallurgical grade alumina, and carbon for aluminum.
The company's products are used in electronics, aerospace, transportation, optical, chemical metallurgical, automobile lightweighting, rail transportation, shipbuilding, automotive, architectural decoration, 3C electronics, packaging and printing, power, communications, and machinery industries, as well as in the production of corundum, ceramics, and refractory materials.
The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Kunming, China.
Stock analysis
Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807) currently trades at ¥25.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.49, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥48.27 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥25.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.60, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥9.33 (bear) to ¥17.54 (bull), the price of ¥25.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd reported revenue of 59.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 41.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was 6.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +16.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 87.7B CNY (≈ $13.2B) Large · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) ¥3.85 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 19.3% · Return on equity 36.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −47%, 000807 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥9.33Fair Value ¥13.49Bull¥17.54
Price ¥25.30 · Downside -46.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥2.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥34.02¥60.65¥128.2775
Growth DCF¥33.03¥65.78¥117.5875
EPV¥21.85¥25.20¥28.1374
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥34.02¥60.65¥128.2775
Owner Earnings¥27.58¥55.27¥108.6472
5Y Revenue Exit¥24.19¥42.73¥68.9071
5Y EBITDA Exit¥26.66¥48.27¥76.7673
5Y P/E Exit¥26.08¥46.98¥72.3169
10Y Revenue Exit¥26.43¥45.96¥78.3965
10Y EBITDA Exit¥28.80¥50.20¥85.5566
10Y P/E Exit¥28.40¥49.21¥81.5262
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥11.87¥71.46¥99.6163
Lynch FV¥20.39¥29.12¥37.8661
PEG = 1.0¥20.39¥29.12¥37.8657
EPV¥21.85¥25.20¥28.1374
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥4.70¥9.66¥15.1366
DDM Multi-Stage¥4.70¥8.20¥10.1667
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥22.26¥29.68¥37.1063
P/S Multiple¥19.42¥25.90¥32.3758
P/B Multiple¥11.71¥15.62¥19.5255
EV/EBIT¥27.46¥36.37¥45.2966
EV/EBITDA¥23.84¥31.55¥39.2667
EV/Revenue¥18.84¥26.61¥34.3854
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥1.06¥1.60¥2.0055
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥33.03¥65.78¥117.5875
Rev-Margin DCF¥24.19¥42.11¥67.3871
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥11.29¥15.15¥26.6173
ROIC Compounder¥25.80¥35.30¥48.0271
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥26.98¥38.55¥50.1167
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+48.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+43.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Per share before 2006divided by the spin-off factor 1.32
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.43.2% vs 49.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.0% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Leading position in green aluminum from renewable power supports margins and recent profit growth, yet thin evidence of any durable moat leaves results exposed to commodity cycles.
Main risk: Erratic rainfall and droughts could disrupt hydropower supply, forcing production cuts or raising electricity costs for the company's smelters in Yunnan.
Bull case: The company could strengthen its renewable power base through additional wind, solar or storage projects and secure verified green premiums under CBAM to offset any supply variability.
Bear case: Persistent droughts or regulatory hurdles could lead to repeated production halts, higher input costs and lost export opportunities, eroding the cost and green advantages over time.
Yunnan Aluminium has built a leading position in green aluminum, with 88 percent of its electricity coming from renewables. This has helped drive sharp profit growth in the first half through better margins and cost control even as aluminum prices rose. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the renewable advantage continue to support results if input costs or competition change?
Compare Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−46.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)29.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)6.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.74× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.28× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow11.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.1× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)88· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000807
Frequently asked questions
Is Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.49 versus a price of ¥25.30, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000807?
Our model-based fair value for Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is ¥13.49 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥25.30.
What is the quality score of 000807?
Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.49 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.33, optimistic scenario ¥17.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.49, about 47% lower versus a price of ¥25.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.33, optimistic scenario ¥17.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 68.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000807 use?
Our models discount Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd that is -4.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies -4.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (-4.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.96 %: that much free cash flow Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd it is ¥13.49 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥25.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 000807 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥25.30, fair value ¥13.49, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000807?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥25.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.49). For Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd the two are ¥11.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd worth?
The market values Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd at about 87.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥25.30; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000807?
Our models span a range for Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥9.33, base ¥13.49, optimistic ¥17.54 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥25.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000807?
Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥13.49 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 19.0. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 36.9%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000807 from its 52-week high?
Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd trades at ¥25.30, about 28% below its 52-week high of ¥35.23 and 20% above the low of ¥21.03 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, Aluminum Corporation, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥25.30, calculated fair value ¥13.49 (−47%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000807 calculated?
We run Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥13.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥25.30. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.49, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥17.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (¥9.33 to ¥17.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
The market capitalisation of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is 87.7B CNY (≈ $13.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is 1.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
Earnings per share at Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd are ¥3.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
The dividend yield of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is 5.0% (payout 32.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
The net margin of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is 19.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is 36.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is 15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
The operating margin of Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is 29.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
Revenue at Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd is growing +17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807)?
Earnings per share at Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd are growing +141% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd (000807) hold?
Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026