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Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co (002769) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.8B CNY

GP Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co 002769 · SHE
Price¥7.02
Fair Value¥2.10
Upside-70.1%
Quality46/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 7.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.22% dividend yield
Trails peers (2/13)
Narrow moat 17/100
Evidence: High Range ¥1.58 – ¥2.64 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥1.84 to ¥2.10 (+14.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +8.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 70% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥14.21 ¥4.40 Fair Value ¥2.10 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.40 – ¥14.21 · fair‑value band ¥1.58 – ¥2.64 · the ¥7.02 price screens above the ¥2.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co (002769) currently trades at ¥7.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.10, implying the stock looks roughly 70.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co generated revenue of 77.6M CNY at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue declined 70.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 124M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.58 (bear case) to ¥2.64 (bull case); at ¥7.02, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -70%, 002769 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (¥0.2500 to ¥2.24). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥1.08 ¥1.13 ¥1.20 80
Residual Income ¥2.24 ¥2.15 ¥1.75 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥1.07 ¥1.13 ¥1.20 74
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.08 ¥1.12 ¥1.21 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥1.07 ¥1.12 ¥1.20 39
5Y P/E Exit ¥1.71 ¥2.24 ¥2.86 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥1.07 ¥1.11 ¥1.15 36
10Y P/E Exit ¥1.45 ¥1.78 ¥2.10 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.6000 ¥0.7300 ¥0.8200 54
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.2300 ¥0.2500 ¥0.2800 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.2300 ¥0.2800 ¥0.3500 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥1.38 ¥1.84 ¥2.31 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.9000 ¥1.21 ¥1.51 58
P/B Multiple ¥1.12 ¥1.49 ¥1.87 55
EV/Revenue ¥1.08 ¥1.13 ¥1.18 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.58 ¥2.12 ¥3.16 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.08 ¥1.13 ¥1.20 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥1.07 ¥1.13 ¥1.20 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.24 ¥2.15 ¥1.75 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.9800 ¥1.40 ¥1.81 68

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (¥2.15) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.2500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 77.6M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -70.0%
Net margin 7.4%
Return on equity -0.2%
Free cash flow 5.2M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 369.5
More key figures
Operating margin -26.2%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.0200
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -87.5%
Net cash 124M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 76
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. provides supply chain management solutions in China and internationally. The company operates global delivery platform; medical service platform; and B2B service platform in line with customer needs in ICT field.

Full company description

Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. provides supply chain management solutions in China and internationally. The company operates global delivery platform; medical service platform; and B2B service platform in line with customer needs in ICT field. It also offers financial leasing services; and cross border e-commerce service solutions with import and export product trade, logistics clearance, brand agency and promotion, and supply chain finance and other cross-border e-commerce integrated solutions. It provides international and domestic freight forwarding services; information consulting; asset management; professional contracting of mechanical and electrical equipment installation projects; mechanical and electrical equipment installation services; and liquid and air-cooled energy storage power station system, and small liquid-cooled energy units. The company is also involved in the investment and operation of industrial and commercial energy storage power station projects; investment and operation of independent energy storage power stations; sales of automobiles; wholesale and retail of steel; wholesale of building materials and decorative materials, and metal products; and sales of computer software and hardware, communication products, electronic products, electronic components, integrated circuits, and household appliances. In addition, it engages in production and operation of medical devices; food circulation, including packaged foods and health foods; wholesale of agricultural and sideline products, and pre-packaged foods; sells nickel sulfide, nickel hydroxide, and cobalt hydroxide; commission agency; and special equipment repair. Further, the company is involved in the investment, construction, and operation of distributed photovoltaic projects, electricity market-based trading, and comprehensive energy services. Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co reported revenue of ¥225M in FY2025 versus ¥2.6B in FY2021, a compound −45.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥32.8M in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 12/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
225M CNY
Latest YoY
−63.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−46.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−41.4%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.1%
Revenue −45.6%/yr
FY21 ¥2.6B
FY22 ¥1.5B
FY23 ¥616M
FY24 ¥622M
FY25 ¥225M
Net income −2.8%/yr
FY21 ¥36.7M
FY22 −¥82.9M
FY23 −¥100M
FY24 −¥84.6M
FY25 ¥32.8M

002769 screens 70% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002769

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −70% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -26% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -70% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 369.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.34× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 35.54× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 78.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 46
FUTURE 0 · sector 8
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 4 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $117.72 $104.58 -11%
FedEx Corporation FDX $314.69 $347.68 +10%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €57.22 €53.18 -7%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,660 kr 712.57 -57%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 209.90 CHF 147.92 -30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $291.41 $133.80 -54%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥31.91 ¥48.64 +52%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $193.50 $86.56 -55%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $172.02 $115.95 -33%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$181.40 HK$241.93 +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co (002769) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.10 versus a price of ¥7.02, about −70% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002769?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co is ¥2.10 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥7.02.
What is the quality score of 002769?
Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co (002769)?
Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 77.6M CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002769?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co is about 7.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co pay a dividend?
Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.22% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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