Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co (002800) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥6.53 to ¥6.24 (−4.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +6.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥3.40 to ¥9.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.98 – ¥24.68 · fair‑value band ¥3.40 – ¥9.06 · the ¥13.62 price screens above the ¥6.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co (002800) currently trades at ¥13.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.24, implying the stock looks roughly 54.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co generated revenue of 1.1B CNY at a net margin of -2.1%. Revenue declined 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.1%. Net debt stands at 243M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.40 (bear case) to ¥9.06 (bull case); at ¥13.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -54%, 002800 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥5.38) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.60). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when 002800 reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co., Ltd. provides third-party logistics and supply chain management services for bulk and large cargo in China. The company offers supply chain design, supply chain management, warehousing, procurement, and distribution services.
Full company description
Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co., Ltd. provides third-party logistics and supply chain management services for bulk and large cargo in China. The company offers supply chain design, supply chain management, warehousing, procurement, and distribution services. It also provides international air logistics services comprising aircraft leasing; operates international routes, and provides international air transport services to customers; and service consultation and assist in connecting with second-leg truck flight transfer, air-to-air transfer and other related businesses. In addition, the company offers international railway logistics services consisting of international freight train operation services; and logistics park operation services, which include storage yard services. Further, it engages in software development activities. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Ürümqi, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co reported revenue of ¥1.1B in FY2025 versus ¥1.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥23.8M in FY2025.
002800 screens 54% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
Compare Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co (002800) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 002800?
What is the quality score of 002800?
What is the revenue of Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co (002800)?
What is the net profit margin of 002800?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.