Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd ¥7.19, price ¥28.68, upside -74.9%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.12 – ¥43.30 · fair‑value band ¥5.40 – ¥8.99 · the ¥28.68 price screens above the ¥7.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of industrial aluminum extrusion products in China.
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Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of industrial aluminum extrusion products in China. The company offers new energy and automotive products, including battery trays; battery module components; energy storage battery trays; thermal management components; bus bars; cylindrical and square shells; battery covers; collector plates; CTC structural components; bumper, front and rear longitudinal, side, rear floor front cross, second and third cross, and front coaming cross beams; and electromotor brackets. It also provides consumer electronics, such as mobile phone and laptop plates and frames; tablet plates; computer HDD components; organic photoconductors for laser printers; power bank shells; wearable device and high end ambient light accessories; and smart speaker covers. In addition, the company offers consumer durables comprising electric towel rack; stroller and vacuum cleaner components; and air purifier shells, as well as aluminum alloy casting rods. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, China.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) currently trades at ¥28.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.19, implying the stock looks roughly 298.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥11.90 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥28.68 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥3.79, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥5.40 (bear) to ¥8.99 (bull), the price of ¥28.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was 155M CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 10.9B CNY (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ratio 51.2 · P/S ratio 1.98 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5600 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −75%, 002824 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.40Fair Value ¥7.19Bull ¥8.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2853 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.0% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Compare Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)51.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.71× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.54× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA34.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)12· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002824
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.19 versus a price of ¥28.68, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002824?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is ¥7.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥28.68.
What is the quality score of 002824?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.40, optimistic scenario ¥8.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.19, about −75% upside versus a price of ¥28.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.40, optimistic scenario ¥8.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd it is ¥7.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥28.68. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002824 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥28.68, fair value ¥7.19, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002824?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥28.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.19). For Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd the two are ¥21.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd at about 10.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥28.68; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002824?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.40, base ¥7.19, optimistic ¥8.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥28.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002824?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.7, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 34.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002824 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd trades at ¥28.68, about 28% below its 52-week high of ¥39.70 and 72% above the low of ¥16.64 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥28.68, calculated fair value ¥7.19 (−75%), Quality Score 34/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002824 calculated?
We run Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥28.68. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.19, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd grew +9.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.3 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 10.9B CNY (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 1.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd are ¥0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 0.6% (payout 30.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The net margin of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Revenue at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is growing +36.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is −61.0M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) carry?
The net debt of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 365M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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