Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co (002824) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 10.9B CNY

Below-average quality, and screening another 69% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.11 – ¥43.30 · fair‑value band ¥5.40 – ¥8.99 · the ¥23.15 price screens above the ¥7.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co (002824) currently trades at ¥23.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.19, implying the stock looks roughly 68.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co generated revenue of 4.3B CNY at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue grew 36.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.1%. Net debt stands at 365M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.40 (bear case) to ¥8.99 (bull case); at ¥23.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -69%, 002824 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥11.15) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.79). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of industrial aluminum extrusion products in China.

Full company description

Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of industrial aluminum extrusion products in China. The company offers new energy and automotive products, including battery trays; battery module components; energy storage battery trays; thermal management components; bus bars; cylindrical and square shells; battery covers; collector plates; CTC structural components; bumper, front and rear longitudinal, side, rear floor front cross, second and third cross, and front coaming cross beams; and electromotor brackets. It also provides consumer electronics, such as mobile phone and laptop plates and frames; tablet plates; computer HDD components; organic photoconductors for laser printers; power bank shells; wearable device and high end ambient light accessories; and smart speaker covers. In addition, the company offers consumer durables comprising electric towel rack; stroller and vacuum cleaner components; and air purifier shells, as well as aluminum alloy casting rods. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co reported revenue of ¥4.0B in FY2025 versus ¥2.4B in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥155M in FY2025, compounding −6.9%/yr from FY2021.

002824 screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.