Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd stock ¥7.19, price ¥17.75, that is 59.5% below the price, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.12 – ¥43.31 · fair‑value band ¥5.39 – ¥8.98 · the ¥17.75 price screens above the ¥7.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of industrial aluminum extrusion products in China.
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The company offers new energy and automotive products, including battery trays; battery module components; energy storage battery trays; thermal management components; bus bars; cylindrical and square shells; battery covers; collector plates; CTC structural components; bumper, front and rear longitudinal, side, rear floor front cross, second and third cross, and front coaming cross beams; and electromotor brackets.
It also provides consumer electronics, such as mobile phone and laptop plates and frames; tablet plates; computer HDD components; organic photoconductors for laser printers; power bank shells; wearable device and high end ambient light accessories; and smart speaker covers.
In addition, the company offers consumer durables comprising electric towel rack; stroller and vacuum cleaner components; and air purifier shells, as well as aluminum alloy casting rods. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, China.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) currently trades at ¥17.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.19, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥11.15 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥17.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.62, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥5.39 (bear) to ¥8.98 (bull), the price of ¥17.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was 155M CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.5B CNY (≈ $829M) Small · P/E ratio 30.6 · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5800 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −59%, 002824 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥5.39Fair Value ¥7.19Bull¥8.98
Price ¥17.75 · Downside -59.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3505 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥5.35¥5.40¥5.7276
EPV¥3.55¥4.05¥4.4674
ROIC Compounder¥3.55¥4.05¥4.4672
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥3.38¥20.71¥28.8963
Lynch FV¥5.93¥8.48¥11.0261
PEG = 1.0¥5.93¥8.48¥11.0257
EPV¥3.55¥4.05¥4.4674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥1.62¥2.69¥3.4768
DDM Multi-Stage¥1.62¥2.56¥2.8967
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥6.34¥8.46¥10.5763
P/S Multiple¥6.34¥8.46¥10.5758
P/B Multiple¥15.40¥20.53¥25.6755
EV/EBIT¥5.90¥8.26¥10.6266
EV/EBITDA¥7.59¥10.51¥13.4367
EV/Revenue¥4.96¥7.58¥10.2153
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥1.07¥1.62¥2.0255
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥5.35¥5.40¥5.7276
ROIC Compounder¥3.55¥4.05¥4.4672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥7.80¥11.15¥14.4967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Per share before 2023divided by the spin-off factor 1.4002
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.9% vs 9.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Compare Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−59.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.5% · Below median
Return on assets2.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)30.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.39× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.09× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA16.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002824
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.19 versus a price of ¥17.75, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002824?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is ¥7.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥17.75.
What is the quality score of 002824?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.39, optimistic scenario ¥8.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.19, about 59% lower versus a price of ¥17.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.39, optimistic scenario ¥8.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.96% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.17 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 27.1% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 29.3%). Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 1.0% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 1.0% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd it is ¥7.19 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥17.75. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 002824 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥17.75, fair value ¥7.19, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002824?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥17.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.19). For Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd the two are ¥10.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd at about 5.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥17.75; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002824?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.39, base ¥7.19, optimistic ¥8.98 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥17.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002824?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.19 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 33.5 (reported for FY2025: 36.2). Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 16.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002824 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd trades at ¥17.75, about 55% below its 52-week high of ¥39.70 and 7% above the low of ¥16.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, Aluminum Corporation, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥17.75, calculated fair value ¥7.19 (−59%), Quality Score 35/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002824 calculated?
We run Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥7.19 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥17.75. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.19, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd grew +9.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.3 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 5.5B CNY (≈ $829M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 1.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd are ¥0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 1.0% (payout 27.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 29.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The net margin of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 3.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Revenue at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is growing +30.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd are growing −33.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is −61.0M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd (002824) carry?
The net debt of Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co Ltd is 365M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026