Choil Aluminum (018470) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Choil Aluminum KRW 1,069, price KRW 5,230, upside -79.6%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 973.00 KRW – 20,250 KRW · fair‑value band 804.60 KRW – 1,336 KRW · the 5,230 KRW price screens above the 1,069 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Choil Aluminum Co., Ltd. operates as an aluminum rolling company in South Korea. The company provides secondary battery, automobile, aluminum foils, electrical and electronic components, construction materials, PP CAP, and railroad products. Choil Aluminum Co., Ltd. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Gyeongsan-si, South Korea.
Stock analysis
Choil Aluminum (018470) currently trades at 5,230 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,069 KRW, 79.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,877 KRW per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 5,230 KRW price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 355.25 KRW, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 804.60 KRW (bear) to 1,336 KRW (bull), the price of 5,230 KRW sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Choil Aluminum reported revenue of 487B KRW in FY2025 versus 467B KRW in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 8.0B KRW in FY2025, compounding −15.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 114B KRW (≈ $85.2M) · P/S ratio 0.23 · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin 8.7% · Revenue (TTM) 500B KRW · Revenue growth (YoY) +9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 438% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −80%, 018470 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 804.60 KRWFair Value 1,069 KRWBull 1,336 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−6.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~6Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−79.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)50· sector 77
PAST (return on equity)18· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Choil Aluminum Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/018470
Frequently asked questions
Is Choil Aluminum (018470) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,069 KRW versus a price of 5,230 KRW, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 018470?
Our model-based fair value for Choil Aluminum is 1,069 KRW (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5,230 KRW.
What is the quality score of 018470?
Choil Aluminum has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Choil Aluminum (018470)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,069 KRW (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 804.60 KRW, optimistic scenario 1,336 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Choil Aluminum stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,069 KRW, about −80% upside versus a price of 5,230 KRW (overvalued). Cautious scenario 804.60 KRW, optimistic scenario 1,336 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
Choil Aluminum reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 500B KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Choil Aluminum (018470)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Choil Aluminum would have to grow free cash flow by +37.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 018470 use?
Our models discount Choil Aluminum at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Choil Aluminum that is +37.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Choil Aluminum (018470) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Choil Aluminum grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +37.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Choil Aluminum (018470) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Choil Aluminum (+37.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.31 %: that much free cash flow Choil Aluminum produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Choil Aluminum it is 1,069 KRW per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 5,230 KRW. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Choil Aluminum stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 018470 trades above its calculated fair value: price 5,230 KRW, fair value 1,069 KRW, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 018470?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5,230 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,069 KRW). For Choil Aluminum the two are 4,161 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Choil Aluminum worth?
The market values Choil Aluminum at about 114B KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 5,230 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 1,069 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 018470?
Our models span a range for Choil Aluminum: cautious scenario 804.60 KRW, base 1,069 KRW, optimistic 1,336 KRW per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 5,230 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
Balance-sheet figures for Choil Aluminum (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 018470 from its 52-week high?
Choil Aluminum trades at 5,230 KRW, about 46% below its 52-week high of 9,755 KRW and 438% above the low of 973.00 KRW (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,069 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Choil Aluminum?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Aluminum Corporation, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Choil Aluminum stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 5,230 KRW, calculated fair value 1,069 KRW (−80%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 018470 calculated?
We run Choil Aluminum through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,069 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Choil Aluminum itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 5,230 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 1,069 KRW, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Choil Aluminum right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,336 KRW). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Choil Aluminum
How large is the market capitalisation of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
The market capitalisation of Choil Aluminum is 114B KRW (≈ $85.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Choil Aluminum is 0.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
The net margin of Choil Aluminum is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Choil Aluminum is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Choil Aluminum is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Choil Aluminum (018470)?
The operating margin of Choil Aluminum is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Choil Aluminum (018470)?
Revenue at Choil Aluminum is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Choil Aluminum (018470)?
Earnings per share at Choil Aluminum are growing +18.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Choil Aluminum (018470) carry?
The net debt of Choil Aluminum is 142B KRW (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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