Oriental Watch Holdings (0398) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 146% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.18 – HK$4.64 · fair‑value band HK$6.10 – HK$10.16 · the HK$3.31 price screens below the HK$8.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
Oriental Watch Holdings (0398) currently trades at HK$3.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.13, implying the stock looks roughly 145.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Oriental Watch Holdings generated revenue of HK$3.3B at a net margin of 5.6%. Revenue declined 10.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$742M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$6.10 (bear case) to HK$10.16 (bull case); at HK$3.31, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at 146%, 0398 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$8.79) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Oriental Watch Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in watch trading business in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, and Macau. It is also involved in holding and investing in properties; and securities investment activities.
Full company description
Oriental Watch Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in watch trading business in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, and Macau. It is also involved in holding and investing in properties; and securities investment activities. The company sells watches through retail and online stores under the Alba, Alfex, Alpina, ARMIN STROM, Arnold & Son, Ball, Baume & Mercier, Bedat & Co., Behrens, Bell & Ross, Bianchet, Breitling, Bremont, BVLGARI, Casio, Charles Girardier, Charriol, Christiaan van der Klaauw, Chronoswiss, Citizen, Corum, Credor, CZAPEK, Elmer Ingo, Emporio Armani, Ernest Borel, Erwin Sattler, Eterna, Faberge, Fendi, Franck Muller, Frederique Constant, GIRARD-PERREGAUX, Glashütte Original, Grand Seiko, and Grovana brands. It also sells its products under the H. Moser & Cie., HAUTLENCE, IKEPOD, Ingersoll, JEAN D'EVE, Juvenia, Juvet, Laine, Laurent Ferrier, Leonard, Longines, Louis Erard, Maurice Lacroix, Memorigin, Mido, Montblanc, Moritz Grossmann, Movado, NOMOS Glashütte, NORMANA, Oris, Parmigiani Fleurier, Rolex, Raymond Weil, Romago, Sacom, Sarcar, Schwarz Etienne, Seiko, SevenFriday, Sultana, Tag Heuer, Tissot, Tudor, TW STEEL, Ulysse Nardin, Versace, VICTORINOX Swiss Army, and Zenith brands. Oriental Watch Holdings Limited was founded in 1961 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Oriental Watch Holdings reported revenue of HK$3.4B in FY2026 versus HK$3.6B in FY2022, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$180M in FY2026, compounding −16.0%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Luxury Goods · 130 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 197.40 | CHF 117.30 | -41% |
| Christian Dior SE DIO | €455.40 | €502.30 | +10% |
| Kering SA KER | €248.50 | €60.61 | -76% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $140.73 | $19.95 | -86% |
| Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 | HK$11.82 | HK$12.28 | +4% |
| The Swatch Group UHRN | CHF 40.95 | CHF 21.48 | -48% |
| Prada S.p.A 1913 | HK$43.26 | HK$64.05 | +48% |
| Pandora A/S PNDORA | kr 779.40 | kr 1,424 | +83% |
| Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC | €80.32 | €42.69 | -47% |
| Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL | ₹546.60 | ₹238.57 | -56% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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