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Oriental Watch Holdings (0398) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.6B

OW Oriental Watch Holdings 0398 · HK
PriceHK$3.31
Fair ValueHK$8.13
Upside+145.6%
Quality69/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 5.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.90% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/14)
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: High Range HK$6.10 – HK$10.16 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price +0.6% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 146% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$4.64 HK$2.18 Fair Value HK$8.13 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.18 – HK$4.64 · fair‑value band HK$6.10 – HK$10.16 · the HK$3.31 price screens below the HK$8.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Oriental Watch Holdings (0398) currently trades at HK$3.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.13, implying the stock looks roughly 145.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Oriental Watch Holdings generated revenue of HK$3.3B at a net margin of 5.6%. Revenue declined 10.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$742M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.10 (bear case) to HK$10.16 (bull case); at HK$3.31, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at 146%, 0398 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$6.57 HK$7.75 HK$9.70 80
Residual Income HK$3.10 HK$3.37 HK$3.89 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$6.94 HK$9.32 HK$12.30 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$6.44 HK$7.67 HK$9.91 38
Owner Earnings HK$7.32 HK$8.79 HK$11.47 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$6.94 HK$9.20 HK$12.58 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$8.15 HK$11.26 HK$15.47 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$6.87 HK$9.08 HK$11.79 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$6.56 HK$8.28 HK$10.21 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$7.36 HK$9.50 HK$11.87 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$6.65 HK$8.21 HK$9.76 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.51 HK$3.79 HK$4.50 54
EPV HK$4.66 HK$5.03 HK$5.33 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.70 HK$4.18 HK$4.72 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.70 HK$4.59 HK$5.61 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$6.10 HK$8.13 HK$10.16 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.71 HK$6.28 HK$7.85 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.71 HK$6.28 HK$7.85 55
EV/EBIT HK$10.61 HK$13.49 HK$16.37 53
EV/EBITDA HK$10.67 HK$13.57 HK$16.48 54
EV/Revenue HK$7.79 HK$10.29 HK$12.78 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.86 HK$2.49 HK$3.71 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$6.57 HK$7.75 HK$9.70 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$6.94 HK$9.32 HK$12.30 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.10 HK$3.37 HK$3.89 76
ROIC Compounder HK$4.68 HK$5.11 HK$5.56 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.30 HK$6.14 HK$7.98 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$8.79) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$3.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -10.1%
Net margin 5.6%
Return on equity 10.0%
Free cash flow HK$263M FY2025
P/E ratio 8.9
More key figures
Operating margin 7.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3800
Dividend yield 2.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -15.6%
Net cash HK$742M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 28
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Oriental Watch Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in watch trading business in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, and Macau. It is also involved in holding and investing in properties; and securities investment activities.

Full company description

Oriental Watch Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in watch trading business in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, and Macau. It is also involved in holding and investing in properties; and securities investment activities. The company sells watches through retail and online stores under the Alba, Alfex, Alpina, ARMIN STROM, Arnold & Son, Ball, Baume & Mercier, Bedat & Co., Behrens, Bell & Ross, Bianchet, Breitling, Bremont, BVLGARI, Casio, Charles Girardier, Charriol, Christiaan van der Klaauw, Chronoswiss, Citizen, Corum, Credor, CZAPEK, Elmer Ingo, Emporio Armani, Ernest Borel, Erwin Sattler, Eterna, Faberge, Fendi, Franck Muller, Frederique Constant, GIRARD-PERREGAUX, Glashütte Original, Grand Seiko, and Grovana brands. It also sells its products under the H. Moser & Cie., HAUTLENCE, IKEPOD, Ingersoll, JEAN D'EVE, Juvenia, Juvet, Laine, Laurent Ferrier, Leonard, Longines, Louis Erard, Maurice Lacroix, Memorigin, Mido, Montblanc, Moritz Grossmann, Movado, NOMOS Glashütte, NORMANA, Oris, Parmigiani Fleurier, Rolex, Raymond Weil, Romago, Sacom, Sarcar, Schwarz Etienne, Seiko, SevenFriday, Sultana, Tag Heuer, Tissot, Tudor, TW STEEL, Ulysse Nardin, Versace, VICTORINOX Swiss Army, and Zenith brands. Oriental Watch Holdings Limited was founded in 1961 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Oriental Watch Holdings reported revenue of HK$3.4B in FY2026 versus HK$3.6B in FY2022, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$180M in FY2026, compounding −16.0%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$3.4B
Latest YoY
−0.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.5%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.2%
Revenue −1.5%/yr
FY22 HK$3.6B
FY23 HK$3.7B
FY24 HK$3.6B
FY25 HK$3.4B
FY26 HK$3.4B
Net income −16.0%/yr
FY22 HK$363M
FY23 HK$295M
FY24 HK$250M
FY25 HK$200M
FY26 HK$180M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oriental Watch Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0398

Peer Group

Luxury Goods · 130 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +146% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth -10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.88× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 15
FUTURE 0 · sector 50
PAST 40 · sector 38
HEALTH 100 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 58 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR CHF 197.40 CHF 117.30 -41%
Christian Dior SE DIO €455.40 €502.30 +10%
Kering SA KER €248.50 €60.61 -76%
Tapestry, Inc TPR $140.73 $19.95 -86%
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 HK$11.82 HK$12.28 +4%
The Swatch Group UHRN CHF 40.95 CHF 21.48 -48%
Prada S.p.A 1913 HK$43.26 HK$64.05 +48%
Pandora A/S PNDORA kr 779.40 kr 1,424 +83%
Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC €80.32 €42.69 -47%
Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL ₹546.60 ₹238.57 -56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Oriental Watch Holdings (0398) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.13 versus a price of HK$3.31, about +146% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0398?
Our model-based fair value for Oriental Watch Holdings is HK$8.13 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$3.31.
What is the quality score of 0398?
Oriental Watch Holdings has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Oriental Watch Holdings (0398)?
Oriental Watch Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0398?
The net profit margin of Oriental Watch Holdings is about 5.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Oriental Watch Holdings pay a dividend?
Oriental Watch Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.90% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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