The Swatch Group AG (UHR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what The Swatch Group AG is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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A solid business, but trading 281% above our fair value of CHF 47.72.
As of Sep 2, 2026, the fair value of The Swatch Group AG is CHF 47.72 per share against a price of CHF 181.85, so the fair value sits 74% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.47% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 1 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange CHF 39.37 to CHF 61.16
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −3.8% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 61.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 119.84 – CHF 306.87 · fair‑value band CHF 39.37 – CHF 61.16 · the CHF 181.85 price screens above the CHF 47.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
The Swatch Group AG (UHR) currently trades at CHF 181.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 47.72, implying the stock looks roughly 281.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of CHF 149.23 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 181.85 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 33.87, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Swatch Group AG generated revenue of CHF 6.3B at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue declined 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of CHF 972M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Scenario range: CHF 39.37 (bear) to CHF 61.16 (bull), the price of CHF 181.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −74%, UHR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidenceCHF 38.54CHF 45.40CHF 58.3281
Growth DCFCHF 39.28CHF 45.96CHF 57.5879
Owner EarningsCHF 22.74CHF 23.93CHF 26.1777
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidenceCHF 38.54CHF 45.40CHF 58.3281
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio1.79TTM
EPS (TTM)CHF 0.0400
Dividend yield2.5%
Net margin0.0%FY2025
Return on equity0.2%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)3.6%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin2.1%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)CHF 6.3BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−2.1%3y avg −5.7%
EPS growth (YoY)−85.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowCHF 98.0MFY2025
Net cashCHF 972MFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality56/100
Of which business quality 57
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Profitability29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance79
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments.
Full company description
The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments. The Watches & Jewelry segment designs, produces, and commercializes watches and jewelry. The Electronic Systems segment engages in the design, production, and commercialization of electronic components, as well as sports timing activities. The company is also involved in the provision of assembly, research and development, administration, logistics and distribution, and customer services; and hard material components, microelectronics, watch cases and crowns, miniature low-frequency quartz crystals, thin wires, miniature batteries, watch dials and hands, bracelets, sports timing technology and equipment, precision parts, electronic components assembly, and surface treatment products. In addition, it engages in the patent, retail, communication, real estate, real estate management, finance, reinsurance, and art center businesses. The company offers its watch and jewelry products under the Breguet, Harry Winston, Blancpain, Glashütte Original, Jaquet Droz, Omega, Longines, Rado, Union Glashütte, Tissot, Balmain, Certina, Mido, Hamilton, Swatch, and Flik Flak brands. The Swatch Group AG was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Swatch Group AG reported revenue of CHF 6.3B in FY2025 versus CHF 7.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 3.0M in FY2025, compounding −75.0%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
CHF 6.3B
Latest YoY
−6.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−30.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−33.3%
Dividend yield2.5%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −66.9% vs 10Y −44.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0.9% (2020) → 2.1% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop106% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in CHF
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue−3.7%/yr
FY21CHF 7.3B
FY22CHF 7.5B
FY23CHF 7.9B
FY24CHF 6.7B
FY25CHF 6.3B
Net income−75.0%/yr
FY21CHF 765M
FY22CHF 807M
FY23CHF 869M
FY24CHF 193M
FY25CHF 3.0M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)−10.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share−1.0 %
of which total revenue −1.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.9 %
EBIT margin−22.8 %
Tax rate−1.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+19.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.13× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.08× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF133.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.12× · Cheapest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must The Swatch Group AG deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+24.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+2.3 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.6 %
FCF yield on price1.04 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.6 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 9
FUTURE0· sector 48
PAST1· sector 40
HEALTH100· sector 99
DIVIDEND49· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
Is The Swatch Group AG (UHR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 47.72 versus a price of CHF 181.85, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UHR?
Our model-based fair value for The Swatch Group AG is CHF 47.72 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 181.85.
What is the quality score of UHR?
The Swatch Group AG has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Swatch Group AG (UHR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 47.72 (as of Sep 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 39.37, optimistic scenario CHF 61.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Swatch Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 47.72, about −74% upside versus a price of CHF 181.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 39.37, optimistic scenario CHF 61.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Swatch Group AG (UHR)?
The Swatch Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 6.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UHR?
The net profit margin of The Swatch Group AG is about 0.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does The Swatch Group AG pay a dividend?
The Swatch Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Swatch Group AG (UHR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Swatch Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by +24.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Sep 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UHR use?
Our models discount The Swatch Group AG at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of The Swatch Group AG (UHR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Swatch Group AG it is CHF 47.72 per share (as of Sep 2, 2026), against a price of CHF 181.85. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Swatch Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 2, 2026, UHR trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 181.85, fair value CHF 47.72, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UHR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 181.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 47.72). For The Swatch Group AG the two are CHF 134.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Swatch Group AG worth?
The market values The Swatch Group AG at about CHF 10.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 2, 2026). Per share that is CHF 181.85; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 47.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UHR?
Our models span a range for The Swatch Group AG: cautious scenario CHF 39.37, base CHF 47.72, optimistic CHF 61.16 per share (as of Sep 2, 2026, price CHF 181.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of UHR?
The PEG ratio of The Swatch Group AG is 0.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Swatch Group AG (UHR)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Swatch Group AG (as of Sep 2, 2026): return on equity 0.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UHR from its 52-week high?
The Swatch Group AG trades at CHF 181.85, about 18% below its 52-week high of CHF 221.20 and 46% above the low of CHF 124.21 (as of Sep 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 47.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Swatch Group AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Titan Company, Tapestry, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Swatch Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 2, 2026: price CHF 181.85, calculated fair value CHF 47.72 (−74%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UHR calculated?
We run The Swatch Group AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 47.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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