Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd HK$7.62, price HK$1.86, upside +309.7%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.25 – HK$4.62 · fair‑value band HK$4.00 – HK$7.62 · the HK$1.86 price screens below the HK$7.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides supply chain management services for automobiles and automobile raw materials, components, and parts in China. The company engages in the full vehicle, parts, international, and integrated logistics services.
Show more
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides supply chain management services for automobiles and automobile raw materials, components, and parts in China. The company engages in the full vehicle, parts, international, and integrated logistics services. It is also involved in the distribution processing services; sale of packaging materials; after-sales parts business; and provision of tires assembling and warehousing management services, as well as non-automobile commodities transportation services. The company was formerly known as CMA Logistics Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co., Ltd. in December 2006. Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292) currently trades at HK$1.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.62, implying the stock looks roughly 75.6% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$29.50 per share, and 17 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$1.86 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.82, and 0 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$4.00 (bear) to HK$7.62 (bull), the price of HK$1.86 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd reported revenue of 9.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 6.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was 40.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$440M (≈ $56.1M) · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2300 · Dividend yield 8.1% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 310%, 1292 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$4.00Fair Value HK$7.62Bull HK$7.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0605 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+27.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.9% vs −16.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 1%
Compare Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 203 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1292
Frequently asked questions
Is Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.62 versus a price of HK$1.86, about +310% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1292?
Our model-based fair value for Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is HK$7.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.86.
What is the quality score of 1292?
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.00, optimistic scenario HK$7.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.62, about +310% upside versus a price of HK$1.86 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.00, optimistic scenario HK$7.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd it is HK$7.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.86. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1292 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.86, fair value HK$7.62, a gap of about +310% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1292?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$7.62). For Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd the two are HK$5.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd worth?
The market values Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd at about HK$440M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.86; our models calculate a fair value of HK$7.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1292?
Our models span a range for Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$4.00, base HK$7.62, optimistic HK$7.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$1.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1292?
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$7.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1292 from its 52-week high?
Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd trades at HK$1.86, about 59% below its 52-week high of HK$4.52 and 2% above the low of HK$1.82 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$7.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.86, calculated fair value HK$7.62 (+310%), Quality Score 37/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1292 calculated?
We run Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$7.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$1.86. Our model-based fair value is HK$7.62, about +310% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$4.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$4.00 to HK$7.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292) come from?
Earnings per share at Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd grew −13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin −15.2 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
The market capitalisation of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is HK$440M (≈ $56.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
Earnings per share at Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd are HK$0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
The dividend yield of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is 8.1% (payout 65.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
The net margin of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
Revenue at Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292)?
Earnings per share at Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd are growing +27.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292) generate?
The free cash flow of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is −289M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd (1292) carry?
The net debt of Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd is 199M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
