Guan Chao Holdings (1872) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$3.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 5, 2026, revised from HK$0.2900 to HK$2.27 (+682.8%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price −9.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$1.57 to HK$2.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1237 – HK$8.78 · fair‑value band HK$1.57 – HK$2.98 · the HK$4.14 price screens above the HK$2.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
Guan Chao Holdings (1872) currently trades at HK$4.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.27, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guan Chao Holdings generated revenue of HK$328M at a net margin of -2.5%. Revenue grew 69.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.1%. Net debt stands at HK$48.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.57 (bear case) to HK$2.98 (bull case); at HK$4.14, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -45%, 1872 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$5.19) versus Multiples (HK$2.27). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guan Chao Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale of parallel-import and pre-owned motor vehicles in Singapore and internationally. It also provides motor vehicle financing, motor vehicle insurance agency, and motor vehicle leasing services; and sales of motor vehicle spare parts and accessories.
Full company description
Guan Chao Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale of parallel-import and pre-owned motor vehicles in Singapore and internationally. It also provides motor vehicle financing, motor vehicle insurance agency, and motor vehicle leasing services; and sales of motor vehicle spare parts and accessories. In addition, it engages in sales of hair-care products; and manufactures and sales lithium niobate crystals and lithium niobate thin films. Guan Chao Holdings Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guan Chao Holdings reported revenue of HK$328M in FY2025 versus HK$246M in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$8.2M in FY2025.
1872 screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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