Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Cn Logistics International Holdings HK$1.86, price HK$3.11, upside -40.3%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.93 – HK$10.17 · fair‑value band HK$1.86 – HK$2.28 · the HK$3.11 price screens above the HK$1.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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CN Logistics International Holdings Limited provides logistics solutions in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, Italy, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Air Freight; Ocean Freight; Cruise Logistics; and Distribution and Logistics Services.
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CN Logistics International Holdings Limited provides logistics solutions in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, Italy, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Air Freight; Ocean Freight; Cruise Logistics; and Distribution and Logistics Services. The Air Freight segment offers air freight forwarding services, which include arranging for consignment upon receipt of booking instructions from customers, cargo pick up, obtaining cargo space, preparation of freight documentation, arranging for customs clearance, and cargo handling at origin and destination, as well as other related logistics services comprising supporting transportation for freight forwarding purposes. The Ocean Freight segment offers ocean freight forwarding services primarily to its air freight forwarding services and other customers. The Cruise Logistics segment engages in shipments of supplies for drydock on project basis and cruise replenishment. This segment also offers delivery of parts and equipment to be used in the repair and maintenance of cruise ships; and supplies to shipyards, drydock, and designated ports. The Distribution And Logistics Services segment provides a range of logistics services, such as managing vendor inventory, pick and pack finished goods, delivery, recycling, quality control and various ancillary value-added services, such as supply chain management and storage services; distribution and logistics services for wine products. It serves direct and freight forwarder customers, high-end fashion retailers, brand owners, and wholesalers and retailers of wine. CN Logistics International Holdings Limited was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong. CN Logistics International Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of DP World Logistics FZE.
Stock analysis
Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130) currently trades at HK$3.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.86, 40.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$5.08 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$3.11 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.2200, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.86 (bear) to HK$2.28 (bull), the price of HK$3.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Cn Logistics International Holdings reported revenue of HK$3.0B in FY2025 versus HK$2.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$15.4M in FY2025, compounding −34.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$910M (≈ $116M) · P/E ratio 62.2 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −40%, 2130 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.86Fair Value HK$1.86Bull HK$2.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0225 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 213 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cn Logistics International Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2130
Frequently asked questions
Is Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.86 versus a price of HK$3.11, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2130?
Our model-based fair value for Cn Logistics International Holdings is HK$1.86 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.11.
What is the quality score of 2130?
Cn Logistics International Holdings has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.86 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.86, optimistic scenario HK$2.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cn Logistics International Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.86, about −40% upside versus a price of HK$3.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.86, optimistic scenario HK$2.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
Cn Logistics International Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Cn Logistics International Holdings pay a dividend?
Cn Logistics International Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cn Logistics International Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +7.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2130 use?
Our models discount Cn Logistics International Holdings at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cn Logistics International Holdings that is +7.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cn Logistics International Holdings grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies +7.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cn Logistics International Holdings (+7.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.86 %: that much free cash flow Cn Logistics International Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cn Logistics International Holdings it is HK$1.86 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$3.11. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cn Logistics International Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2130 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.11, fair value HK$1.86, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2130?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.86). For Cn Logistics International Holdings the two are HK$1.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cn Logistics International Holdings worth?
The market values Cn Logistics International Holdings at about HK$910M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.11; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2130?
Our models span a range for Cn Logistics International Holdings: cautious scenario HK$1.86, base HK$1.86, optimistic HK$2.28 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$3.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2130?
Cn Logistics International Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cn Logistics International Holdings (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2130 from its 52-week high?
Cn Logistics International Holdings trades at HK$3.11, about 10% below its 52-week high of HK$3.46 and 6% above the low of HK$2.93 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cn Logistics International Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cn Logistics International Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$3.11, calculated fair value HK$1.86 (−40%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2130 calculated?
We run Cn Logistics International Holdings through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Cn Logistics International Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.11. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.86, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cn Logistics International Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Cn Logistics International Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
The market capitalisation of Cn Logistics International Holdings is HK$910M (≈ $116M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cn Logistics International Holdings is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
Earnings per share at Cn Logistics International Holdings are HK$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 62.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
The dividend yield of Cn Logistics International Holdings is 0.6% (payout 40.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
The net margin of Cn Logistics International Holdings is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cn Logistics International Holdings is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cn Logistics International Holdings is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
The operating margin of Cn Logistics International Holdings is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
Revenue at Cn Logistics International Holdings is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130)?
Earnings per share at Cn Logistics International Holdings are growing −17.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cn Logistics International Holdings (2130) carry?
The net debt of Cn Logistics International Holdings is HK$233M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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