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Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd HK$0.62, price HK$2.64, upside -76.5%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK

DT Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd

2418 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$0.6200 · Strongly overvalued (−76.5%)
!Quality 30/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +5.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.5% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!1.2% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Trails peers (2/13)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 7 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 23 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$9.77 HK$0.6269 Fair Value HK$0.6200 Jul 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

51‑month range HK$0.6269 – HK$9.77 · fair‑value band HK$0.4700 – HK$0.7800 · the HK$2.64 price screens above the HK$0.6200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Deewin Tianxia Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics and supply chain business in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Logistics and Supply Chain Service; Supply Chain Financial Service; and Internet of Vehicles and Data Service segments.

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Deewin Tianxia Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics and supply chain business in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Logistics and Supply Chain Service; Supply Chain Financial Service; and Internet of Vehicles and Data Service segments. The Logistics and Supply Chain Service segment distributes commercial vehicles and components, including tyres, lubricants, and other automobile-related products, such as carbamide and components; logistics and warehousing services; and leased automobile management services. This segment serves raw materials and components suppliers, energy companies, express courier service providers, commercial vehicle manufacturers, automobile sales dealers, logistics companies, and commercial vehicle end-customers. Its Supply Chain Financial Service segment provides heavy-duty trucks and commercial vehicles financial leasing and factoring services; satellite positioning devices; and related installation services under the financial leasing services. The Internet of Vehicles and Data Service segment distributes IoV terminal products and solutions; and offers data services. The company was formerly known as Deewin Tianxia Investment Holding Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Deewin Tianxia Co., Ltd in December 2020. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Xi'an, the People's Republic of China. Deewin Tianxia Co., Ltd is a subsidiary of Shaanxi Automobile Group Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418) currently trades at HK$2.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6200, 76.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$1.20 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$2.64 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.3400, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.4700 (bear) to HK$0.7800 (bull), the price of HK$2.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 68.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding −34.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$6.3B (≈ $809M) · P/E ratio 98.3 · P/S ratio 2.43 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −77%, 2418 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.4700 Fair Value HK$0.6200 Bull HK$0.7800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0068 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$1.20 HK$1.14 HK$1.11 76
Gordon GGM HK$0.3100 HK$0.3400 HK$0.3900 69
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.4300 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7900 68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.2500 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4100 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3100 HK$0.3400 HK$0.3900 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3100 HK$0.3900 HK$0.4700 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.6000 HK$0.8000 HK$1.01 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.4700 HK$0.6200 HK$0.7800 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.4700 HK$0.6200 HK$0.7800 55
EV/EBIT n/a HK$0.1700 HK$0.4200 61
EV/EBITDA n/a HK$0.2200 HK$0.4800 62
EV/Revenue n/a n/a HK$0.1100 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9000 HK$1.20 HK$1.79 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.20 HK$1.14 HK$1.11 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.4300 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7900 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 58
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 4%

2418 screens overvalued: fair value 77% below the price. Compare with Carvana Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 94 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −76.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1.8% · Below median
Return on assets 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) −1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 22.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.68× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 98.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.62× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.96× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 53.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)7 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)66 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 67

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.6200 −77%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2418

Frequently asked questions

Is Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6200 versus a price of HK$2.64, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2418?
Our model-based fair value for Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is HK$0.6200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.64.
What is the quality score of 2418?
Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4700, optimistic scenario HK$0.7800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.6200, about −77% upside versus a price of HK$2.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4700, optimistic scenario HK$0.7800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd it is HK$0.6200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.64. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2418 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.64, fair value HK$0.6200, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2418?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6200). For Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd the two are HK$2.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd worth?
The market values Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd at about HK$6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.64; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2418?
Our models span a range for Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.4700, base HK$0.6200, optimistic HK$0.7800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2418?
Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 98.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.6200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 53.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 0.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2418 from its 52-week high?
Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd trades at HK$2.64, about 73% below its 52-week high of HK$9.77 and 35% above the low of HK$1.95 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.64, calculated fair value HK$0.6200 (−77%), Quality Score 30/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2418 calculated?
We run Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.6200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.64. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.6200, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.7800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
The market capitalisation of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is HK$6.3B (≈ $809M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is 2.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
Earnings per share at Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd are HK$0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 98.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
The dividend yield of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is 1.2% (payout 77.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
The net margin of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
The operating margin of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
Revenue at Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is growing +22.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418)?
Earnings per share at Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd are growing −19.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418) generate?
The free cash flow of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is −870M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd (2418) carry?
The net debt of Deewin Tianxia Co Ltd is 6.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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