MCLON JEWELLERY Co (300945) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥10.09 to ¥9.62 (−4.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from ¥7.21 (bear) to ¥12.02 (bull), base ¥9.62. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 48/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.78 – ¥32.61 · fair‑value band ¥7.21 – ¥12.02 · the ¥11.78 price screens above the ¥9.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
MCLON JEWELLERY Co (300945) currently trades at ¥11.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.62, implying the stock looks roughly 18.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, MCLON JEWELLERY Co generated revenue of 2.6B CNY at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue declined 15.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 24.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.21 (bear case) to ¥12.02 (bull case); at ¥11.78, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -18%, 300945 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥19.16) versus Asset-Based (¥4.29). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MCLON JEWELLERY Co.,Ltd. offers jewelry retail in China and internationally. It provides jewelry, gold and silver accessories. The company sells its products through shopping mall and online sales. MCLON JEWELLERY Co.,Ltd. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MCLON JEWELLERY Co reported revenue of ¥2.7B in FY2025 versus ¥1.3B in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥115M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
300945 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Compagnie Financière Richemont SA →
Peer Group
Luxury Goods · 132 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 197.40 | CHF 117.30 | -41% |
| Christian Dior SE DIO | €455.40 | €502.30 | +10% |
| Kering SA KER | €248.50 | €60.61 | -76% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $140.73 | $19.95 | -86% |
| Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 | HK$11.82 | HK$12.28 | +4% |
| The Swatch Group UHRN | CHF 40.95 | CHF 21.48 | -48% |
| Prada S.p.A 1913 | HK$43.26 | HK$64.05 | +48% |
| Pandora A/S PNDORA | kr 779.40 | kr 1,424 | +83% |
| Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC | €80.32 | €42.69 | -47% |
| Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL | ₹546.60 | ₹238.57 | -56% |
Compare MCLON JEWELLERY Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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