China Harmony Auto Holding Ltd (3836) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −14.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2800 to HK$0.6500) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3950 – HK$4.04 · fair‑value band HK$0.2800 – HK$0.6500 · the HK$0.6650 price screens above the HK$0.4900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Harmony Auto Holding Ltd (3836) currently trades at HK$0.6650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.4900, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Harmony Auto Holding Ltd generated revenue of HK$20.0B at a net margin of -3.2%. Revenue grew 27.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.0%. Net debt stands at HK$4.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2800 (bear case) to HK$0.6500 (bull case); at HK$0.6650, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -5% fair-value upside, at -26%, 3836 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$2.16) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.4200). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Harmony Auto Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale of automobiles in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company offers luxury and ultra-luxury vehicles under the BMW, MINI, Audi, Land Rover, Lexus, Lincoln, Lotus, as well as Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Lotus through dealership outlets.
Full company description
China Harmony Auto Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale of automobiles in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company offers luxury and ultra-luxury vehicles under the BMW, MINI, Audi, Land Rover, Lexus, Lincoln, Lotus, as well as Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Lotus through dealership outlets. It also provides finance leasing and after-sales services. The company was formerly known as China Harmony New Energy Auto Holding Limited and changed its name to China Harmony Auto Holding Limited in July 2020. China Harmony Auto Holding Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Harmony Auto Holding Ltd reported revenue of HK$20.0B in FY2025 versus HK$18.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$635M in FY2025.
3836 screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $72.48 | $24.58 | -66% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $218.00 | $217.41 | -0% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €175.00 | €105.40 | -40% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 524.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +7% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.71 | $29.44 | -50% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $378.55 | $498.50 | +32% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $208.62 | $329.77 | +58% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $80.63 | $66.27 | -18% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $33.30 | $24.55 | -26% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $35.33 | $33.46 | -5% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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