Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Hsinli Chemical Industrial TWD 56.24, price TWD 32.00, upside +75.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
HsinLi Chemical Industrial Corp. engages in the manufacture and sale of synthetic and plastic leather products in Taiwan and internationally.
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HsinLi Chemical Industrial Corp. engages in the manufacture and sale of synthetic and plastic leather products in Taiwan and internationally. The company provides TPU products, moisture-penetrate polyurethane (PU) films, and PU synthetic leather products; furniture, automobile decoration, and soft polyvinyl chloride series products; and leather sofa, wallpapers, car seats, seat covers, and cushions. The company was founded in 1962 and is based in Tainan City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303) currently trades at 32.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 56.24 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 43.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 292.53 TWD per share, and 10 of the 20 models we run sit above the 32.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 6.59 TWD, and 10 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 35.43 TWD (bear) to 112.05 TWD (bull), the price of 32.00 TWD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hsinli Chemical Industrial reported revenue of 988M TWD in FY2025 versus 365M TWD in FY2021, a compound +28.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B TWD in FY2025, compounding +66.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.4B TWD (≈ $139M) · P/E ratio 4.8 · P/S ratio 5.17 · EPS (TTM) 6.61 TWD · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 107% · Return on equity 25.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 49% fair-value upside, at 76%, 4303 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 35.43 TWDFair Value 56.24 TWDBull 112.05 TWD
Price 32.00 TWD · Upside +75.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (4.49 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+164.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+46.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+44.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → −10%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.0%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.0% a year for the price.
Compare Hsinli Chemical Industrial with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+75.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets−1.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)87.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hsinli Chemical Industrial Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4303
Frequently asked questions
Is Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 56.24 TWD versus a price of 32.00 TWD, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4303?
Our model-based fair value for Hsinli Chemical Industrial is 56.24 TWD (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 32.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4303?
Hsinli Chemical Industrial has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 56.24 TWD (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario 35.43 TWD, optimistic scenario 112.05 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hsinli Chemical Industrial stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 56.24 TWD, about +76% upside versus a price of 32.00 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 35.43 TWD, optimistic scenario 112.05 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
Hsinli Chemical Industrial reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Hsinli Chemical Industrial pay a dividend?
Hsinli Chemical Industrial currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.23% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hsinli Chemical Industrial would have to grow free cash flow by +41.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.3 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4303 use?
Our models discount Hsinli Chemical Industrial at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hsinli Chemical Industrial that is +41.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hsinli Chemical Industrial grew +24.3 % a year. The price currently implies +41.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hsinli Chemical Industrial (+41.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.26 %: that much free cash flow Hsinli Chemical Industrial produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hsinli Chemical Industrial it is 56.24 TWD per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of 32.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hsinli Chemical Industrial stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 4303 trades below its calculated fair value: price 32.00 TWD, fair value 56.24 TWD, a gap of about +76% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4303?
No. The price is what the market pays today (32.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (56.24 TWD). For Hsinli Chemical Industrial the two are 24.24 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hsinli Chemical Industrial worth?
The market values Hsinli Chemical Industrial at about 4.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is 32.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 56.24 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4303?
Our models span a range for Hsinli Chemical Industrial: cautious scenario 35.43 TWD, base 56.24 TWD, optimistic 112.05 TWD per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price 32.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4303?
Hsinli Chemical Industrial trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 56.24 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hsinli Chemical Industrial (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 25.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4303 from its 52-week high?
Hsinli Chemical Industrial trades at 32.00 TWD, about 58% below its 52-week high of 76.20 TWD and at the low of 32.00 TWD (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 56.24 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hsinli Chemical Industrial?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, adidas AG, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, On Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hsinli Chemical Industrial stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price 32.00 TWD, calculated fair value 56.24 TWD (+76%), Quality Score 44/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4303 calculated?
We run Hsinli Chemical Industrial through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 56.24 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hsinli Chemical Industrial currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was 32.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 56.24 TWD, about +76% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hsinli Chemical Industrial right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (35.43 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (35.43 TWD to 112.05 TWD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Hsinli Chemical Industrial
How large is the market capitalisation of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
The market capitalisation of Hsinli Chemical Industrial is 4.4B TWD (≈ $139M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hsinli Chemical Industrial is 5.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
Earnings per share at Hsinli Chemical Industrial are 6.61 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
The dividend yield of Hsinli Chemical Industrial is 2.2% (payout 10.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
The net margin of Hsinli Chemical Industrial is 107% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hsinli Chemical Industrial is 25.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hsinli Chemical Industrial is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
The operating margin of Hsinli Chemical Industrial is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
Revenue at Hsinli Chemical Industrial is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +44.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303)?
Earnings per share at Hsinli Chemical Industrial are growing +138% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hsinli Chemical Industrial (4303) carry?
The net debt of Hsinli Chemical Industrial is 638M TWD (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 16.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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