Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co (603116) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated today
Share price +0.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.95 – ¥8.84 · fair‑value band ¥3.10 – ¥4.04 · the ¥6.13 price screens above the ¥3.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Analysis
Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co (603116) currently trades at ¥6.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.57, implying the stock looks roughly 41.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co generated revenue of 2.0B CNY at a net margin of -6.7%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 969M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.10 (bear case) to ¥4.04 (bull case); at ¥6.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -42%, 603116 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥6.47) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.35). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells shoes for adults in China. The company also offers luggage bags and leather goods, and children's products. It sells its products under the Red Dragonfly brand through offline and online channel. Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co., Ltd.
Full company description
Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells shoes for adults in China. The company also offers luggage bags and leather goods, and children's products. It sells its products under the Red Dragonfly brand through offline and online channel. Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co., Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Wenzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co reported revenue of ¥2.0B in FY2025 versus ¥2.5B in FY2021, a compound −5.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥140M in FY2025.
603116 screens 42% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $44.37 | $35.63 | -20% |
| adidas AG 1ADS | €165.00 | €65.71 | -60% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $106.49 | $125.16 | +18% |
| On Holding ONON | $38.20 | $17.64 | -54% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥12.11 | ¥13.03 | +8% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $44.36 | $44.14 | -0% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $138.91 | $203.65 | +47% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥31.10 | ¥54.71 | +76% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €29.31 | €10.57 | -64% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $43.26 | $11.69 | -73% |
Compare Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co with another stock
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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