Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co (603535) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥1.74 to ¥3.24 (+86.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +5.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥2.10 to ¥4.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.71 – ¥13.23 · fair‑value band ¥2.10 – ¥4.85 · the ¥6.34 price screens above the ¥3.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co (603535) currently trades at ¥6.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.24, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co generated revenue of 1.1B CNY at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue declined 19.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. Net debt stands at 1.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.10 (bear case) to ¥4.85 (bull case); at ¥6.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -49%, 603535 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥3.38) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides third-party integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macao and internationally.
Full company description
Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides third-party integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macao and internationally. The company offers integrated logistics, including transportation, warehousing, inbound and outbound operations, and freight forwarding; and e-commerce logistics, such as intelligent warehousing and storage, loading and unloading, packaging, coordinated distribution, circulation processing, and logistics information transmission. It also provides commodity sale; agency procurement; processing services comprising raw material, production, finished product, and reverse logistics, as well as contract manufacturing; and international trade services. In addition, the company involved in the assembly, processing, and sale of air conditioner parts and other electronic components; supply chain management; and purchasing and customs declaration. Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥1.1B in FY2025 versus ¥1.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥38.4M in FY2025, compounding −32.3%/yr from FY2021.
603535 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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