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Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co (603569) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.4B CNY

BC Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co 603569 · SHG
Price¥5.73
Fair Value¥9.17
Upside+60.0%
Quality51/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -2.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.26% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 15/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥6.65 – ¥11.67 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥6.53 to ¥9.17 (+40.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥6.65). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥14.97 ¥5.30 Fair Value ¥9.17 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.30 – ¥14.97 · fair‑value band ¥6.65 – ¥11.67 · the ¥5.73 price screens below the ¥9.17 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co (603569) currently trades at ¥5.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.17, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co generated revenue of 3.5B CNY at a net margin of -2.6%. Revenue declined 36.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.2%. Net debt stands at 369M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥6.65 (bear case) to ¥11.67 (bull case); at ¥5.73, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 60%, 603569 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥6.53 ¥8.83 ¥11.98 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.83 ¥8.32 ¥11.17 74
Gordon GGM ¥3.45 ¥6.87 ¥10.40 70
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥6.45 ¥9.06 ¥12.83 38
Owner Earnings ¥5.04 ¥6.92 ¥9.66 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.83 ¥8.29 ¥11.39 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.23 ¥9.04 ¥12.27 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥5.89 ¥8.15 ¥11.12 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.26 ¥8.66 ¥11.77 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.45 ¥6.87 ¥10.40 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.45 ¥5.53 ¥7.25 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥6.71 ¥8.49 ¥10.28 54
EV/Revenue ¥5.69 ¥7.54 ¥9.40 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.21 ¥2.97 ¥4.43 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥6.53 ¥8.83 ¥11.98 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.83 ¥8.32 ¥11.17 74

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥8.32) versus Asset-Based (¥2.97). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 3.5B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -36.7%
Net margin -2.6%
Return on equity -2.2%
Free cash flow 287M CNY FY2025
Operating margin 1.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.1500
Dividend yield 5.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -84.0%
Net debt 369M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services for the automobile industry chain in China and internationally.

Full company description

Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services for the automobile industry chain in China and internationally. The company offers vehicle logistics services, including road transportation, multimodal transportation, social vehicle, and warehousing solutions; and international services, such as railway, road, ocean shipping, and air, as well as value-added services comprising packaging, vehicle trade and logistics, overseas warehousing and distribution, overseas agency, customs clearance, and others. It also provides energy logistics; storage and charging integration services, which include planning and design, EPC engineering, intelligent operation and maintenance, integrated energy services, and integrated whole-link solutions; and power battery recycling. In addition, the company is involved in the international freight forwarding and shipping businesses; technology promotion and application; solar power generation technology; wholesale and retail; software development; information technology; boat rental; energy and logistics information consulting; motor vehicle repair; energy storage product sales; and carbon emission reduction, conversion, capture, and storage technology research and development. It serves automobile manufacturers, dealers, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd is a subsidiary of Jilin Changjiu Industry Group Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥3.7B in FY2025 versus ¥4.5B in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −¥87.4M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 10/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.7B CNY
Latest YoY
−11.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−2.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+9.9%
Revenue −4.8%/yr
FY21 ¥4.5B
FY22 ¥4.0B
FY23 ¥3.8B
FY24 ¥4.2B
FY25 ¥3.7B
Net income
FY21 ¥86.2M
FY22 ¥18.0M
FY23 ¥70.3M
FY24 ¥79.6M
FY25 −¥87.4M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603569

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on assets -0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth -37% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.14× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 45
FUTURE 0 · sector 8
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 99 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $117.72 $104.58 -11%
FedEx Corporation FDX $314.69 $347.68 +10%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €57.22 €53.18 -7%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,660 kr 712.57 -57%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 209.90 CHF 147.92 -30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $291.41 $133.80 -54%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥31.91 ¥48.64 +52%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $193.50 $86.56 -55%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $172.02 $115.95 -33%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$181.40 HK$241.93 +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co (603569) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.17 versus a price of ¥5.73, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 603569?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co is ¥9.17 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥5.73.
What is the quality score of 603569?
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co (603569)?
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603569?
The net profit margin of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co is about -2.6%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co pay a dividend?
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.26% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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