Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd ¥8.70, price ¥5.78, upside +50.5%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.30 – ¥14.97 · fair‑value band ¥6.37 – ¥11.49 · the ¥5.78 price screens below the ¥8.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services for the automobile industry chain in China and internationally.
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Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services for the automobile industry chain in China and internationally. The company offers vehicle logistics services, including road transportation, multimodal transportation, social vehicle, and warehousing solutions; and international services, such as railway, road, ocean shipping, and air, as well as value-added services comprising packaging, vehicle trade and logistics, overseas warehousing and distribution, overseas agency, customs clearance, and others. It also provides energy logistics; storage and charging integration services, which include planning and design, EPC engineering, intelligent operation and maintenance, integrated energy services, and integrated whole-link solutions; and power battery recycling. In addition, the company is involved in the international freight forwarding and shipping businesses; technology promotion and application; solar power generation technology; wholesale and retail; software development; information technology; boat rental; energy and logistics information consulting; motor vehicle repair; energy storage product sales; and carbon emission reduction, conversion, capture, and storage technology research and development. It serves automobile manufacturers, dealers, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd is a subsidiary of Jilin Changjiu Industry Group Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569) currently trades at ¥5.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.70, implying the stock looks roughly 33.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥8.21 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥5.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.97, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥6.37 (bear) to ¥11.49 (bull), the price of ¥5.78 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd reported revenue of 3.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −87.4M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.5B CNY (≈ $521M) · P/S ratio 0.98 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1500 · Dividend yield 11.2% · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity −2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 51%, 603569 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥6.37Fair Value ¥8.70Bull ¥11.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.10/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.8% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.1% (2020) → −0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.3% a year for the price.
Compare Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 216 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.70 versus a price of ¥5.78, about +51% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 603569?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is ¥8.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.78.
What is the quality score of 603569?
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.37, optimistic scenario ¥11.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.70, about +51% upside versus a price of ¥5.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.37, optimistic scenario ¥11.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd pay a dividend?
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603569 use?
Our models discount Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd that is +5.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +5.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (+5.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.24 %: that much free cash flow Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd it is ¥8.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥5.78. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603569 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥5.78, fair value ¥8.70, a gap of about +51% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603569?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.70). For Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd the two are ¥2.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd worth?
The market values Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd at about 3.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.78; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603569?
Our models span a range for Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd: cautious scenario ¥6.37, base ¥8.70, optimistic ¥11.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥5.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
Balance-sheet figures for Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603569 from its 52-week high?
Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd trades at ¥5.78, about 31% below its 52-week high of ¥8.35 and 9% above the low of ¥5.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥5.78, calculated fair value ¥8.70 (+51%), Quality Score 51/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603569 calculated?
We run Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥5.78. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.70, about +51% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥6.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (¥6.37 to ¥11.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
The market capitalisation of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is 3.5B CNY (≈ $521M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is 0.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
Earnings per share at Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd are ¥−0.1500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
The dividend yield of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is 11.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
The net margin of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is −2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
The operating margin of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
Revenue at Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is growing −17.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569)?
Earnings per share at Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd are growing −84.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd (603569) carry?
The net debt of Beijing Changjiu Logistics Ltd is 369M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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