Jiayou International Logistics Co (603871) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 16.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥16.35 to ¥14.60 (−10.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 18% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (¥11.09 to ¥24.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from ¥11.09 (bear) to ¥24.64 (bull), base ¥14.60. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.15 – ¥16.15 · fair‑value band ¥11.09 – ¥24.64 · the ¥12.42 price screens below the ¥14.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Jiayou International Logistics Co (603871) currently trades at ¥12.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.60, implying the stock looks roughly 17.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiayou International Logistics Co generated revenue of 8.0B CNY at a net margin of 15.1%. Revenue declined 15.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 765M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥11.09 (bear case) to ¥24.64 (bull case); at ¥12.42, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 18%, 603871 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥27.22) versus Asset-Based (¥2.95). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jiayou International Logistics Co.,Ltd engages in the provision of cross-border multimodal integrated logistics services and supply chain trade services. The company offers cross-border multimodal integrated logistics services, supply chain trade services, and land port operation services.
Full company description
Jiayou International Logistics Co.,Ltd engages in the provision of cross-border multimodal integrated logistics services and supply chain trade services. The company offers cross-border multimodal integrated logistics services, supply chain trade services, and land port operation services. It operates in China-Mongolia, Central Africa, Central Asia, Central and South America, and internationally. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiayou International Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥8.4B in FY2025 versus ¥3.9B in FY2021, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.1B in FY2025, compounding +35.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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