Hanvey Group Holdings Ltd (8219) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$68.1M
Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −1.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1020). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1090 – HK$1.45 · fair‑value band HK$0.0765 – HK$0.1020 · the HK$0.2650 price screens above the HK$0.0935 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
Analysis
Hanvey Group Holdings Ltd (8219) currently trades at HK$0.2650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0935, implying the stock looks roughly 64.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hanvey Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$143M at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue grew 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.1%. Net debt stands at HK$33.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0765 (bear case) to HK$0.1020 (bull case); at HK$0.2650, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 162% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at -65%, 8219 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.1500) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0400). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hanvey Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and distribution of watch products on an original design manufacturing basis in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Hanvey Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and distribution of watch products on an original design manufacturing basis in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It offers female and male watches, metal and non-metal banded, mechanical, and quartz movement watches; and finished watches; semi-knocked-down kits; and watch parts. It develops and operates information technology solutions; trades in and distributes watches; and provides assembly services relating to sales of finished watches. The company serves watch manufacturers, brand owners, and watch importers. It operates in Indonesia, India, Brazil, Australia, and Turkey. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong. Hanvey Group Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Million Easy Enterprises Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hanvey Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$143M in FY2025 versus HK$204M in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.7M in FY2025.
8219 screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Compagnie Financière Richemont SA →
Peer Group
Luxury Goods · 136 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 193.70 | CHF 119.08 | -39% |
| Christian Dior SE DIO | €423.60 | €1,095 | +159% |
| Kering SA KER | €270.60 | €56.23 | -79% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $153.74 | $19.95 | -87% |
| Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 | HK$12.31 | HK$11.51 | -6% |
| The Swatch Group UHRN | CHF 37.90 | CHF 21.48 | -43% |
| Prada S.p.A 1913 | HK$42.22 | HK$64.07 | +52% |
| Pandora A/S PNDORA | kr 771.40 | kr 1,424 | +85% |
| Laopu Gold Co 6181 | HK$359.20 | HK$544.05 | +51% |
| Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL | ₹596.70 | ₹238.57 | -60% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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