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Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd (8537) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$57.6M

CF Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd 8537 · HK
PriceHK$0.2040
Fair ValueHK$0.1300
Upside-36.3%
Quality60/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 2.4% net margin
generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1100 – HK$0.1300 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +10.3% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$8.88 HK$0.1210 Fair Value HK$0.1300 Mar 2019 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1210 – HK$8.88 · fair‑value band HK$0.1100 – HK$0.1300 · the HK$0.2040 price screens above the HK$0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd (8537) currently trades at HK$0.2040, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1300, implying the stock looks roughly 36.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$154M at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue grew 30.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1100 (bear case) to HK$0.1300 (bull case); at HK$0.2040, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at -36%, 8537 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$0.1600 HK$0.1400 HK$0.0900 76
Growth DCF HK$0.2800 HK$0.3300 HK$0.4000 72
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 68
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.2800 HK$0.3300 HK$0.4000 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2100 HK$0.2400 HK$0.2800 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.3100 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5500 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2200 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2400 HK$0.2600 HK$0.2900 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2900 HK$0.3600 HK$0.4200 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.2300 HK$0.2400 HK$0.2500 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0100 HK$0.0100 HK$0.0100 54
EPV HK$0.1200 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.1900 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2600 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.3900 HK$0.4800 HK$0.5800 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.1600 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2100 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1300 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2700 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.2800 HK$0.3300 HK$0.4000 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2100 HK$0.2500 HK$0.2900 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.1600 HK$0.1400 HK$0.0900 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1200 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.2600) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$154M
Revenue growth (YoY) +30.9%
Net margin 2.4%
Return on equity 3.7%
Free cash flow HK$9.4M FY2025
P/E ratio 20.4
More key figures
Operating margin 6.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100
EPS growth (YoY) +294%
Net cash HK$1.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, production, retail, and of jewelry products in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, production, retail, and of jewelry products in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It engages in the wholesale of its jewelry products to other jewelry retailers; and the trading of recycled gold products, as well as offer gem-set and pure gold jewellery. The company sells its products through a network of retail stores under the Chong Fai Jewellery brand name. The company was formerly known as Dominate Group Holdings Company Limited and changed its name to Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Company Limited in March 2020. Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Hung Hom, Hong Kong. Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Company Limited is a subsidiary of Mythe Group Holdings Company.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$135M in FY2025 versus HK$102M in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$500K in FY2025.

Growth Quality 52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$135M
Latest YoY
−5.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.4%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.0%
Revenue +7.3%/yr
FY21 HK$102M
FY22 HK$107M
FY23 HK$137M
FY24 HK$142M
FY25 HK$135M
Net income
FY21 −HK$280K
FY22 −HK$7.7M
FY23 −HK$2.2M
FY24 HK$1.6M
FY25 HK$500K

8537 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Compagnie Financière Richemont SA →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8537

Peer Group

Luxury Goods · 136 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −36% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth 31% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.59× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.37× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 17
FUTURE 100 · sector 38
PAST 15 · sector 40
HEALTH 0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR CHF 193.70 CHF 119.08 -39%
Christian Dior SE DIO €423.60 €1,095 +159%
Kering SA KER €270.60 €56.23 -79%
Tapestry, Inc TPR $153.74 $19.95 -87%
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 HK$12.31 HK$11.51 -6%
The Swatch Group UHRN CHF 37.90 CHF 21.48 -43%
Prada S.p.A 1913 HK$42.22 HK$64.07 +52%
Pandora A/S PNDORA kr 771.40 kr 1,424 +85%
Laopu Gold Co 6181 HK$359.20 HK$544.05 +51%
Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL ₹596.70 ₹238.57 -60%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd (8537) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1300 versus a price of HK$0.2040, about −36% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8537?
Our model-based fair value for Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd is HK$0.1300 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.2040.
What is the quality score of 8537?
Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd (8537)?
Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$154M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 8537?
The net profit margin of Chong Fai Jewellery Group Holdings Co Ltd is about 2.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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