Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alkindo Naratama Tbk stock IDR 261, price IDR 1,320, that is 80.2% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 293.05 IDR – 1,955 IDR · fair‑value band 178.04 IDR – 389.14 IDR · the 1,320 IDR price screens above the 260.73 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Alkindo Naratama Tbk in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Alkindo Naratama Tbk is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells conversion paper products in Indonesia. The company operates through Paper, and Chemical and Others segments.
Show moreShow less
The company offers papers for paper core, paper box, paper bag, hexa wrap, paper cup, paper bowl, paper tube, honeycomb board, and edge protector industries, as well as kraft liners, eco boards, and core boards.
It manufactures and sells water-based polymers for wood, paint, and roof coating industries under the ALFACHEM, ALFABOND, and ALFACOAT trademarks; engages in trading and industrial manufacturing; operates as an agent and distributor of dyes and textile chemicals; and provides logistics services.
The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Bandung, Indonesia. PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Golden Arista International.
Stock analysis
Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO) currently trades at 1,320 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 260.73 IDR, 80% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 371.06 IDR per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the 1,320 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 201.17 IDR, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 178.04 IDR (bear) to 389.14 IDR (bull), the price of 1,320 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alkindo Naratama Tbk reported revenue of 2.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.5T IDR in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was 35.1B IDR in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6T IDR (≈ $198M) Micro · P/E ratio 39.6 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) 33.35 IDR · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 152% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at −80%, ALDO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (5.10 IDR to 1,167 IDR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear178.04 IDRFair Value 260.73 IDRBull389.14 IDR
Price 1,320 IDR · Downside -80.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (28.60 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.7% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−31.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−31.4% vs −1.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−80.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)39.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.39× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.54× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 260.73 IDR versus a price of 1,320 IDR, about 80% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALDO?
Our model-based fair value for Alkindo Naratama Tbk is 260.73 IDR (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,320 IDR.
What is the quality score of ALDO?
Alkindo Naratama Tbk has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 260.73 IDR (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario 178.04 IDR, optimistic scenario 389.14 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alkindo Naratama Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 260.73 IDR, about 80% lower versus a price of 1,320 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 178.04 IDR, optimistic scenario 389.14 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
Alkindo Naratama Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3T IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alkindo Naratama Tbk it is 260.73 IDR per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 1,320 IDR. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Alkindo Naratama Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ALDO trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,320 IDR, fair value 260.73 IDR, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALDO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,320 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (260.73 IDR). For Alkindo Naratama Tbk the two are 1,059 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alkindo Naratama Tbk worth?
The market values Alkindo Naratama Tbk at about 3.6T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 1,320 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 260.73 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALDO?
Our models span a range for Alkindo Naratama Tbk: cautious scenario 178.04 IDR, base 260.73 IDR, optimistic 389.14 IDR per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 1,320 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALDO?
Alkindo Naratama Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 260.73 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.4, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 14.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alkindo Naratama Tbk (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALDO from its 52-week high?
Alkindo Naratama Tbk trades at 1,320 IDR, about 32% below its 52-week high of 1,955 IDR and 152% above the low of 524.62 IDR (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 260.73 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alkindo Naratama Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alkindo Naratama Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 1,320 IDR, calculated fair value 260.73 IDR (−80%), Quality Score 52/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALDO calculated?
We run Alkindo Naratama Tbk through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 260.73 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Alkindo Naratama Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 1,320 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 260.73 IDR, about 80% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alkindo Naratama Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (389.14 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (178.04 IDR to 389.14 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO) come from?
Earnings per share at Alkindo Naratama Tbk grew −7.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.8 %, EBIT margin −6.7 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alkindo Naratama Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
The market capitalisation of Alkindo Naratama Tbk is 3.6T IDR (≈ $198M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alkindo Naratama Tbk is 1.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
Earnings per share at Alkindo Naratama Tbk are 33.35 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
The net margin of Alkindo Naratama Tbk is 3.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alkindo Naratama Tbk is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alkindo Naratama Tbk is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
The operating margin of Alkindo Naratama Tbk is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
Revenue at Alkindo Naratama Tbk is growing +27.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO)?
Earnings per share at Alkindo Naratama Tbk are growing +87.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO) generate?
The free cash flow of Alkindo Naratama Tbk is −72.6B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO) carry?
The net debt of Alkindo Naratama Tbk is 543B IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Alkindo Naratama Tbk in the live analysis
One click puts Alkindo Naratama Tbk on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 8, 2026