Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Austral Resources Australia Ltd stock A$0.07, price A$0.05, upside +36.9%, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0430 – A$0.6350 · fair‑value band A$0.0546 – A$0.0796 · the A$0.0490 price screens below the A$0.0671 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Austral Resources Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, and production of copper resources in Queensland, Australia. It holds interest in The Lady Annie Project; The Rocklands Copper Project; and The Anthill Project. The company also produces and sells copper cathodes.
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Austral Resources Australia Ltd was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) currently trades at A$0.0490, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0671, implying the stock looks roughly 27% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.2000 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$0.0490 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0546 (bear) to A$0.0796 (bull), the price of A$0.0490 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Austral Resources Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$3.5M in FY2025 versus A$37.3M in FY2021, a compound −44.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$11.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$130M (≈ $89.7M) Micro · P/E ratio 4.9 · P/S ratio 16.5 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Return on equity 69.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1,306% · Revenue (TTM) A$8.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 37%, AR1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.0546Fair Value A$0.0671BullA$0.0796
Price A$0.0490 · Upside +36.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0086 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner EarningsA$0.1000A$0.2000A$0.380072
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.0900A$0.1300A$0.170067
Residual IncomeA$0.0200A$0.0400A$0.080065
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner EarningsA$0.1000A$0.2000A$0.380072
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.0300A$0.2100A$0.300063
Lynch FVA$0.0800A$0.1100A$0.140061
PEG = 1.0A$0.0800A$0.1100A$0.140057
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.0600A$0.0800A$0.100063
P/B MultipleA$0.0300A$0.0400A$0.050055
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.010055
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.0200A$0.0400A$0.080065
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.0900A$0.1300A$0.170067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−95.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−59.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−32% → −67%
Compare Austral Resources Australia Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+36.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)69.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)56.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Austral Resources Australia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AR1
Frequently asked questions
Is Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0671 versus a price of A$0.0490, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AR1?
Our model-based fair value for Austral Resources Australia Ltd is A$0.0671 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0490.
What is the quality score of AR1?
Austral Resources Australia Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0671 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0546, optimistic scenario A$0.0796. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Austral Resources Australia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0671, about +37% upside versus a price of A$0.0490 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0546, optimistic scenario A$0.0796. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Austral Resources Australia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$8.5M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Austral Resources Australia Ltd it is A$0.0671 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$0.0490. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Austral Resources Australia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AR1 trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0490, fair value A$0.0671, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AR1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0490); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0671). For Austral Resources Australia Ltd the two are A$0.0181 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Austral Resources Australia Ltd worth?
The market values Austral Resources Australia Ltd at about A$130M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0490; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0671 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AR1?
Our models span a range for Austral Resources Australia Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0546, base A$0.0671, optimistic A$0.0796 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$0.0490). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AR1?
Austral Resources Australia Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.0671 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 15.3, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Austral Resources Australia Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 69.0%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AR1 from its 52-week high?
Austral Resources Australia Ltd trades at A$0.0490, about 65% below its 52-week high of A$0.1400 and 14% above the low of A$0.0430 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0671 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Austral Resources Australia Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Austral Resources Australia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$0.0490, calculated fair value A$0.0671 (+37%), Quality Score 33/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AR1 calculated?
We run Austral Resources Australia Ltd through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0671 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Austral Resources Australia Ltd currently trades 27% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.0490. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0671, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Austral Resources Australia Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0546). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Austral Resources Australia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The market capitalisation of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is A$130M (≈ $89.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is 16.5 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Earnings per share at Austral Resources Australia Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is 69.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is −4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The operating margin of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is −1,306% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Revenue at Austral Resources Australia Ltd is growing +56.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −59.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) generate?
The free cash flow of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is −A$19.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) carry?
The net debt of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is A$3.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026