Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$152M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +9.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Our model range runs from A$0.0525 (bear) to A$0.0746 (bull), base A$0.0595. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 29/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range A$0.0430 – A$0.6350 · fair‑value band A$0.0525 – A$0.0746 · the A$0.0710 price screens above the A$0.0595 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) currently trades at A$0.0710, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0595, implying the stock looks roughly 16.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$7.1M. Revenue grew 35.2% year over year. Net debt stands at A$3.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0525 (bear case) to A$0.0746 (bull case); at A$0.0710, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -16%, AR1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.1000) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Austral Resources Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, and production of copper resources in Queensland, Australia. It holds interest in The Lady Annie Project; The Rocklands Copper Project; and The Anthill Project. The company also produces and sells copper cathodes.
Full company description
Austral Resources Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, and production of copper resources in Queensland, Australia. It holds interest in The Lady Annie Project; The Rocklands Copper Project; and The Anthill Project. The company also produces and sells copper cathodes. Austral Resources Australia Ltd was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Austral Resources Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$3.5M in FY2025 versus A$37.3M in FY2021, a compound −44.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$11.9M in FY2025.
AR1 screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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