Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Austral Resources Australia Ltd A$0.07, price A$0.08, upside -16.2%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range A$0.0430 – A$0.6350 · fair‑value band A$0.0541 – A$0.0833 · the A$0.0820 price screens above the A$0.0687 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Austral Resources Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, and production of copper resources in Queensland, Australia. It holds interest in The Lady Annie Project; The Rocklands Copper Project; and The Anthill Project. The company also produces and sells copper cathodes.
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Austral Resources Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, and production of copper resources in Queensland, Australia. It holds interest in The Lady Annie Project; The Rocklands Copper Project; and The Anthill Project. The company also produces and sells copper cathodes. Austral Resources Australia Ltd was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) currently trades at A$0.0820, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0687, implying the stock looks roughly 19.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.0600 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the A$0.0820 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0541 (bear) to A$0.0833 (bull), the price of A$0.0820 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Austral Resources Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$3.5M in FY2025 versus A$37.3M in FY2021, a compound −44.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$11.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$188M (≈ $133M) · P/S ratio 26.6 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin 168% · Return on equity −184% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.5% · Operating margin −16.0% · Revenue (TTM) A$7.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −16%, AR1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0541Fair Value A$0.0687Bull A$0.0833
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.3/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−95.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−59.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−32% → −67%
Compare Austral Resources Australia Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 58 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−20% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)168% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−16% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth35% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Austral Resources Australia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AR1
Frequently asked questions
Is Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0687 versus a price of A$0.0820, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AR1?
Our model-based fair value for Austral Resources Australia Ltd is A$0.0687 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0820.
What is the quality score of AR1?
Austral Resources Australia Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0687 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0541, optimistic scenario A$0.0833. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Austral Resources Australia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0687, about −16% upside versus a price of A$0.0820 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0541, optimistic scenario A$0.0833. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Austral Resources Australia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$7.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Austral Resources Australia Ltd it is A$0.0687 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0820. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Austral Resources Australia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AR1 trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0820, fair value A$0.0687, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AR1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0820); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0687). For Austral Resources Australia Ltd the two are A$0.0133 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Austral Resources Australia Ltd worth?
The market values Austral Resources Australia Ltd at about A$188M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0820; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0687 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AR1?
Our models span a range for Austral Resources Australia Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0541, base A$0.0687, optimistic A$0.0833 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0820). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Austral Resources Australia Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −184.2%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AR1 from its 52-week high?
Austral Resources Australia Ltd trades at A$0.0820, about 49% below its 52-week high of A$0.1600 and 91% above the low of A$0.0430 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0687 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Austral Resources Australia Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Austral Resources Australia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0820, calculated fair value A$0.0687 (−16%), Quality Score 29/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AR1 calculated?
We run Austral Resources Australia Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0687, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Austral Resources Australia Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0820. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0687, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Austral Resources Australia Ltd right now?
Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Austral Resources Australia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The market capitalisation of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is A$188M (≈ $133M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is 26.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Earnings per share at Austral Resources Australia Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The net margin of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is 168% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is −184% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is −4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
The operating margin of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is −16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1)?
Revenue at Austral Resources Australia Ltd is growing +35.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −59.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) generate?
The free cash flow of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is −A$19.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Austral Resources Australia Ltd (AR1) carry?
The net debt of Austral Resources Australia Ltd is A$3.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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