Billerud AB (BLRDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Billerud AB $4.91, price $8.49, upside -42.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Billerud AB
BLRDF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.05 – $16.79 · fair‑value band $3.02 – $6.14 · the $8.49 price screens above the $4.91 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Billerud AB (publ) provides paper and packaging materials worldwide. It operates through Region Europe, Region North America, and Other segments.
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Billerud AB (publ) provides paper and packaging materials worldwide. It operates through Region Europe, Region North America, and Other segments. The company offers liquid packaging board, containerboard, cartonboard, and sack paper; kraft paper bags; specialty and formable paper; graphic and label papers comprising coated sheets, web papers, WC Caliper web, coated digital, and inkjet papers; and hardwood and softwood pulp, which are used to produce packaging for food and beverages, industrial, medical and hygiene, and consumer and luxury goods. It also procures and supplies wood. The company serves packaging and paper manufacturers, printers, publishers, converters, and distribution partners. The company was formerly known as BillerudKorsnäs AB (publ) and changed its name to Billerud AB (publ) in October 2022. Billerud AB (publ) was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Billerud AB (BLRDF) currently trades at $8.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.91, 42.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $7.44 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $8.49 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.23, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.02 (bear) to $6.14 (bull), the price of $8.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Billerud AB reported revenue of 40.5B SEK in FY2025 versus 26.2B SEK in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 711M SEK in FY2025, compounding −16.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 283.0 · P/S ratio 4.97 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Revenue (TTM) 42.8B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −42%, BLRDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
BLRDF screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with UPM-Kymmene Oyj →
Compare Billerud AB with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €24.85 | €15.50 | −38% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.54 | ¥16.93 | +25% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$5.88 | HK$14.06 | +139% |
| The Navigator Company NVG | €3.21 | €2.08 | −35% |
| PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP | 8,225 IDR | 12,607 IDR | +53% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 975.00 CLP | 1,371 CLP | +41% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥17.74 | ¥18.80 | +6% |
| Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM | €19.90 | €23.55 | +18% |
| MCC Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co 000815 | ¥14.25 | ¥1.56 | −89% |
| YFY Inc 1907 | 28.40 TWD | 20.05 TWD | −29% |
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