Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Blue Dart Express Limited ₹2,189, price ₹4,747, upside -53.9%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹4,647 – ₹9,263 · fair‑value band ₹1,642 – ₹2,737 · the ₹4,747 price screens above the ₹2,189 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Blue Dart Express Limited provides courier and express services in India. It provides day-definite and time-definite delivery schedules across air and ground network under the Domestic Priority, Dart Apex, Dart Surfaceline, and Dart Plus names; and door-to-door ground distribution service under the Dart Surfaceline name.
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Blue Dart Express Limited provides courier and express services in India. It provides day-definite and time-definite delivery schedules across air and ground network under the Domestic Priority, Dart Apex, Dart Surfaceline, and Dart Plus names; and door-to-door ground distribution service under the Dart Surfaceline name. The company also offers air freight services between the airports of Kolkata, Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Ahmedabad; air express and ground express packaging services under the Smart Box name; wood-free palletized packaging; shipment for freight of 50kg, 75kg, or above 100kg; door-to-door express deliveries for documents and shipments; international services; and temperature-controlled logistics solutions, as well as operates domestic express airline charter. It has a fleet of 6 Boeing 757-200 freighters and 2 Boeing 737 aircraft; and a flotilla of various vehicles, facilities, and e-vehicles in India. Blue Dart Express Limited was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India. Blue Dart Express Limited is a subsidiary of DHL Express (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
Stock analysis
Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART) currently trades at ₹4,747, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹2,189, implying the stock looks roughly 116.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹3,169 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹4,747 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹319.72, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹1,642 (bear) to ₹2,737 (bull), the price of ₹4,747 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Blue Dart Express Limited reported revenue of ₹61.4B in FY2026 versus ₹44.1B in FY2022, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹2.5B in FY2026, compounding −10.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹113B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 45.6 · P/S ratio 1.84 · EPS (TTM) ₹104.13 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −54%, BLUEDART screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹1,642Fair Value ₹2,189Bull ₹2,737
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹39.02 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.4% vs 5.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.4% a year for the price and +4.6% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
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Is Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹2,189 versus a price of ₹4,747, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BLUEDART?
Our model-based fair value for Blue Dart Express Limited is ₹2,189 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹4,747.
What is the quality score of BLUEDART?
Blue Dart Express Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹2,189 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹1,642, optimistic scenario ₹2,737. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Blue Dart Express Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹2,189, about −54% upside versus a price of ₹4,747 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹1,642, optimistic scenario ₹2,737. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
Blue Dart Express Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹61.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Blue Dart Express Limited pay a dividend?
Blue Dart Express Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Blue Dart Express Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +18.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BLUEDART use?
Our models discount Blue Dart Express Limited at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Blue Dart Express Limited that is +18.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Blue Dart Express Limited grew +13.3 % a year. The price currently implies +18.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Blue Dart Express Limited (+18.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.27 %: that much free cash flow Blue Dart Express Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Blue Dart Express Limited it is ₹2,189 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹4,747. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Blue Dart Express Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BLUEDART trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹4,747, fair value ₹2,189, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BLUEDART?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹4,747); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹2,189). For Blue Dart Express Limited the two are ₹2,557 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Blue Dart Express Limited worth?
The market values Blue Dart Express Limited at about ₹113B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹4,747; our models calculate a fair value of ₹2,189 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BLUEDART?
Our models span a range for Blue Dart Express Limited: cautious scenario ₹1,642, base ₹2,189, optimistic ₹2,737 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹4,747). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BLUEDART?
Blue Dart Express Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹2,189 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.3, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
Balance-sheet figures for Blue Dart Express Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 14.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BLUEDART from its 52-week high?
Blue Dart Express Limited trades at ₹4,747, about 29% below its 52-week high of ₹6,694 and 2% above the low of ₹4,647 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹2,189 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Blue Dart Express Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Blue Dart Express Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹4,747, calculated fair value ₹2,189 (−54%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BLUEDART calculated?
We run Blue Dart Express Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹2,189, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Blue Dart Express Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was ₹4,747. Our model-based fair value is ₹2,189, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Blue Dart Express Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹2,737). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART) come from?
Earnings per share at Blue Dart Express Limited grew +6.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Blue Dart Express Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
The market capitalisation of Blue Dart Express Limited is ₹113B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Blue Dart Express Limited is 1.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
Earnings per share at Blue Dart Express Limited are ₹104.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
The dividend yield of Blue Dart Express Limited is 0.5% (payout 24.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
The net margin of Blue Dart Express Limited is 4.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Blue Dart Express Limited is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Blue Dart Express Limited is 14.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
The operating margin of Blue Dart Express Limited is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
Revenue at Blue Dart Express Limited is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART)?
Earnings per share at Blue Dart Express Limited are growing +189% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Blue Dart Express Limited (BLUEDART) carry?
The net debt of Blue Dart Express Limited is ₹9.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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