Brilliant Earth Group (BRLT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $113M
Brilliant Earth Group
BRLT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +14.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4760). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band ($0.4335 to $0.4760), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $1.03 – $17.32 · fair‑value band $0.4335 – $0.4760 · the $1.28 price screens above the $0.4505 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Brilliant Earth Group (BRLT) currently trades at $1.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4505, implying the stock looks roughly 64.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Brilliant Earth Group generated revenue of $443M at a net margin of -1.1%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -13.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $41.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.4335 (bear case) to $0.4760 (bull case); at $1.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -65%, BRLT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($1.64) versus Asset-Based ($0.0900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. designs, procures, and sells diamonds, gemstones, and jewelry in the United States and internationally. The company offers diamond engagement rings, wedding and anniversary rings, gemstone rings, and fine jewelry, as well as pre-set gemstone rings.
Full company description
Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. designs, procures, and sells diamonds, gemstones, and jewelry in the United States and internationally. The company offers diamond engagement rings, wedding and anniversary rings, gemstone rings, and fine jewelry, as well as pre-set gemstone rings. It sells directly to consumers through its omnichannel sales platform, e-commerce, and showrooms. Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is based in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Brilliant Earth Group reported revenue of $437M in FY2025 versus $380M in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.6M in FY2025.
BRLT screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Compagnie Financière Richemont SA →
Peer Group
Luxury Goods · 130 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 197.40 | CHF 117.30 | -41% |
| Christian Dior SE DIO | €455.40 | €502.30 | +10% |
| Kering SA KER | €248.50 | €60.61 | -76% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $140.73 | $19.95 | -86% |
| Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 | HK$11.82 | HK$12.28 | +4% |
| The Swatch Group UHRN | CHF 40.95 | CHF 21.48 | -48% |
| Prada S.p.A 1913 | HK$43.26 | HK$64.05 | +48% |
| Pandora A/S PNDORA | kr 779.40 | kr 1,424 | +83% |
| Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC | €80.32 | €42.69 | -47% |
| Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL | ₹546.60 | ₹238.57 | -56% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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