Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio BRL 2.92, price BRL 11.28, upside -74.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$2.83 – R$21.23 · fair‑value band R$2.08 – R$3.95 · the R$11.28 price screens above the R$2.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio produces and sells aluminum products. The company provides bauxite, hydrate, alumina, molten aluminum, ingots, secondary ingots, slabs, billets, rod, caster rolls, and coils, sheets, and services. It also owns and operates hydroelectric power plants.
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Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio produces and sells aluminum products. The company provides bauxite, hydrate, alumina, molten aluminum, ingots, secondary ingots, slabs, billets, rod, caster rolls, and coils, sheets, and services. It also owns and operates hydroelectric power plants. It operates in Brazil, Netherlands, Canada, the United States, Mexico, Uruguay, Belgium, Germany, Spain, Paraguay, The United Kingdom, Argentina, Colombia, and Internationally. Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio operates as a subsidiary of Votorantim S.A.
Stock analysis
Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3) currently trades at R$11.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$2.92, implying the stock looks roughly 286.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of R$4.61 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$11.28 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$1.31, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$2.08 (bear) to R$3.95 (bull), the price of R$11.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Cia Brasileira de Aluminio reported revenue of R$8.8B in FY2025 versus R$8.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$121M in FY2025, compounding −36.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$7.3B (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 59.4 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) R$0.1900 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 221% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −74%, CBAV3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$2.08Fair Value R$2.92Bull R$3.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.1068 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−32.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−33% vs −5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.4% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Cia Brasileira de Aluminio with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−74% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.96× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)59.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.34× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.16× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF7.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)52· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cia Brasileira de Aluminio Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CBAV3
Frequently asked questions
Is Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$2.92 versus a price of R$11.28, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CBAV3?
Our model-based fair value for Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is R$2.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$11.28.
What is the quality score of CBAV3?
Cia Brasileira de Aluminio has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$2.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$2.08, optimistic scenario R$3.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cia Brasileira de Aluminio stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$2.92, about −74% upside versus a price of R$11.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$2.08, optimistic scenario R$3.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
Cia Brasileira de Aluminio reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$8.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Cia Brasileira de Aluminio pay a dividend?
Cia Brasileira de Aluminio currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cia Brasileira de Aluminio would have to grow free cash flow by +35.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CBAV3 use?
Our models discount Cia Brasileira de Aluminio at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cia Brasileira de Aluminio that is +35.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cia Brasileira de Aluminio grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies +35.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (+35.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.80 %: that much free cash flow Cia Brasileira de Aluminio produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cia Brasileira de Aluminio it is R$2.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of R$11.28. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cia Brasileira de Aluminio stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CBAV3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$11.28, fair value R$2.92, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CBAV3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$11.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$2.92). For Cia Brasileira de Aluminio the two are R$8.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cia Brasileira de Aluminio worth?
The market values Cia Brasileira de Aluminio at about R$7.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is R$11.28; our models calculate a fair value of R$2.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CBAV3?
Our models span a range for Cia Brasileira de Aluminio: cautious scenario R$2.08, base R$2.92, optimistic R$3.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price R$11.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CBAV3?
Cia Brasileira de Aluminio trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$2.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.96 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CBAV3 from its 52-week high?
Cia Brasileira de Aluminio trades at R$11.28, at its 52-week high of R$11.28 and 221% above the low of R$3.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$2.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cia Brasileira de Aluminio?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cia Brasileira de Aluminio stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price R$11.28, calculated fair value R$2.92 (−74%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CBAV3 calculated?
We run Cia Brasileira de Aluminio through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$2.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cia Brasileira de Aluminio itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$11.28. Our model-based fair value is R$2.92, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cia Brasileira de Aluminio right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$3.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$2.08 to R$3.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio
How large is the market capitalisation of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
The market capitalisation of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is R$7.3B (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is 0.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
Earnings per share at Cia Brasileira de Aluminio are R$0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
The dividend yield of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is 0.4% (payout 23.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
The net margin of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
The operating margin of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
Revenue at Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is growing −1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3)?
Earnings per share at Cia Brasileira de Aluminio are growing +0.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBAV3) carry?
The net debt of Cia Brasileira de Aluminio is R$3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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