Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS TRY 143, price TRY 79.20, upside +80.2%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.52 TRY – 129.84 TRY · fair‑value band 104.97 TRY – 191.54 TRY · the 79.20 TRY price screens below the 142.72 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ford Otomotiv Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, assembly, production, import, and sale of motor vehicles and spare parts in Turkey and internationally.
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Ford Otomotiv Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, assembly, production, import, and sale of motor vehicles and spare parts in Turkey and internationally. The company offers passenger car models, light commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles, as well as diesel engines and powertrains under the Ford brand name. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1926 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO) currently trades at 79.20 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 142.72 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 44.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 482.12 TRY per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the 79.20 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 29.79 TRY, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 104.97 TRY (bear) to 191.54 TRY (bull), the price of 79.20 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS reported revenue of 831B TRL in FY2025 versus 71.1B TRL in FY2021, a compound +84.9%/yr. Reported net income was 34.0B TRL in FY2025, compounding +40.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 278B TRY (≈ $5.7B) · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) 8.83 TRY · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.9% · Operating margin 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 80%, FROTO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 104.97 TRYFair Value 142.72 TRYBull 191.54 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (6.46 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +47.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.9% a year for the price.
Compare Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 112 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside+80% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FROTO
Frequently asked questions
Is Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 142.72 TRY versus a price of 79.20 TRY, about +80% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FROTO?
Our model-based fair value for Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is 142.72 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 79.20 TRY.
What is the quality score of FROTO?
Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 142.72 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 104.97 TRY, optimistic scenario 191.54 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 142.72 TRY, about +80% upside versus a price of 79.20 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 104.97 TRY, optimistic scenario 191.54 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 775B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by -10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +75.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FROTO use?
Our models discount Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS that is -10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS grew +75.8 % a year. The price currently implies -10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (-10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.62 %: that much free cash flow Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS it is 142.72 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 79.20 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FROTO trades below its calculated fair value: price 79.20 TRY, fair value 142.72 TRY, a gap of about +80% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FROTO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (79.20 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (142.72 TRY). For Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS the two are 63.52 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS at about 278B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 79.20 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 142.72 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FROTO?
Our models span a range for Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 104.97 TRY, base 142.72 TRY, optimistic 191.54 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 79.20 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FROTO?
Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 142.72 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.0%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FROTO from its 52-week high?
Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS trades at 79.20 TRY, about 39% below its 52-week high of 130.91 TRY and 6% above the low of 75.05 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 142.72 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 79.20 TRY, calculated fair value 142.72 TRY (+80%), Quality Score 37/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FROTO calculated?
We run Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 142.72 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS currently trades 80 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 79.20 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 142.72 TRY, about +80% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (104.97 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (104.97 TRY to 191.54 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
The market capitalisation of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is 278B TRY (≈ $5.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is 0.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
Earnings per share at Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS are 8.83 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
The net margin of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is 16.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
The operating margin of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
Revenue at Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +69.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO)?
Earnings per share at Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS are growing −45.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS (FROTO) carry?
The net debt of Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS is 97.1B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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