Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $431M
Forward Air Corporation
FWRD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +58.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 32% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (28/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($5.12 to $64.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.31 – $121.98 · fair‑value band $5.12 – $64.42 · the $19.35 price screens below the $25.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) currently trades at $19.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.56, implying the stock looks roughly 32.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Forward Air Corporation generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue declined 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -69.1%. Net debt stands at $2.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.12 (bear case) to $64.42 (bull case); at $19.35, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 146% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 32%, FWRD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($27.72) versus Asset-Based ($2.40). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal.
Full company description
Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal. Its Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. This segment offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services. The Omni Logistics segment offers full suite of global logistics services, such as air and ocean freight consolidation and forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, value-added services, time-definite transportation services, and other supply chain solutions. Its Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract and container freight station warehouse and handling services. The company serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. Forward Air Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Forward Air Corporation reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$108M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Forward Air (FWRD) Surges 22.8%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?
- Forward Air surges on deal to retain up to 75% of at-risk business
- Forward Air secures deal to keep at least 50% of $250M account
- Forward Air vs. Old Dominion Freight Line: Which Industrials Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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