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Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Forward Air Corporation $23.39, price $15.06, upside +55.3%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US34986A1043

FA Forward Air Corporation logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Forward Air Corporation

FWRD · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $23.39 · Strongly undervalued (+55%)
!Quality 28/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +14.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $4.68 to $52.87
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$121.98 $8.31 Fair Value $23.39 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.31 – $121.98 · fair‑value band $4.68 – $52.87 · the $15.06 price screens below the $23.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal.

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Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal. Its Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. This segment offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services. The Omni Logistics segment offers full suite of global logistics services, such as air and ocean freight consolidation and forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, value-added services, time-definite transportation services, and other supply chain solutions. Its Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract and container freight station warehouse and handling services. The company serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. Forward Air Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) currently trades at $15.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.39, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $43.68 per share, and 6 of the 8 models we run sit above the $15.06 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.40, and 2 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $4.68 (bear) to $52.87 (bull), the price of $15.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Forward Air Corporation reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$108M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $466M · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) $−2.92 · Net margin −4.3% · Return on equity −69.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% · Operating margin 4.0% · Revenue (TTM) $2.5B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 55%, FWRD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.68 Fair Value $23.39 Bull $52.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $8.93 $46.99 $104.54 72
Growth DCF $8.12 $41.77 $89.66 71
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $1.59 69
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $8.93 $46.99 $104.54 72
Owner Earnings $9.08 $47.24 $104.94 68
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $1.59 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.19 $43.68 $91.11 67
10Y Revenue Exit n/a $2.73 $20.21 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $5.85 $39.16 $88.03 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $8.29 $27.72 $47.15 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.79 $2.40 $3.58 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $8.12 $41.77 $89.66 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 15
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 17
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.8% (2020) → 1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+56.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +52.7% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.0%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +55% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 14.89× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.12× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.19× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 30.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.65× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 62

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $95.82 $107.84 +13%
FedEx Corporation FDX $291.50 $347.68 +19%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €56.48 €136.05 +141%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,235 kr 712.57 −42%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 228.10 CHF 147.92 −35%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $234.63 $133.80 −43%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥30.94 ¥106.04 +243%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $149.67 $86.56 −42%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $188.03 $115.95 −38%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$155.70 HK$260.98 +68%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Forward Air Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FWRD

Frequently asked questions

Is Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.39 versus a price of $15.06, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FWRD?
Our model-based fair value for Forward Air Corporation is $23.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.06.
What is the quality score of FWRD?
Forward Air Corporation has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.68, optimistic scenario $52.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Forward Air Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.39, about +55% upside versus a price of $15.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.68, optimistic scenario $52.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Forward Air Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Forward Air Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +56.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FWRD use?
Our models discount Forward Air Corporation at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Forward Air Corporation that is +56.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Forward Air Corporation grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies +56.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Forward Air Corporation (+56.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.27 %: that much free cash flow Forward Air Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Forward Air Corporation it is $23.39 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $15.06. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Forward Air Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FWRD trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.06, fair value $23.39, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FWRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.39). For Forward Air Corporation the two are $8.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Forward Air Corporation worth?
The market values Forward Air Corporation at about $466M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $15.06; our models calculate a fair value of $23.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FWRD?
Our models span a range for Forward Air Corporation: cautious scenario $4.68, base $23.39, optimistic $52.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $15.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of FWRD?
The PEG ratio of Forward Air Corporation is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Forward Air Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −69.1%, debt of 14.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FWRD from its 52-week high?
Forward Air Corporation trades at $15.06, about 50% below its 52-week high of $30.23 and 81% above the low of $8.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Forward Air Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Forward Air Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $15.06, calculated fair value $23.39 (+55%), Quality Score 28/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FWRD calculated?
We run Forward Air Corporation through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Forward Air Corporation currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $15.06. Our model-based fair value is $23.39, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Forward Air Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (28/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($4.68 to $52.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of Forward Air Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The market capitalisation of Forward Air Corporation is $466M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Forward Air Corporation is 0.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Earnings per share at Forward Air Corporation are $−2.92. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The net margin of Forward Air Corporation is −4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Forward Air Corporation is −69.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Forward Air Corporation is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The operating margin of Forward Air Corporation is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Revenue at Forward Air Corporation is growing −5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Earnings per share at Forward Air Corporation are growing +145% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) carry?
The net debt of Forward Air Corporation is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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