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Data-driven stock valuation

Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Forward Air Corporation stock $25.90, price $16.64, upside +55.6%, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

FA Forward Air Corporation logo Thin data Nov 3, 2026

Forward Air Corporation

FWRD · US
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 36% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $25.90 · Strongly undervalued
Generates free cash flow
Profit last quarter +145% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +14.5 %/yr in USD)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
Quality 28/100
Loss-making · -11.4% net margin (TTM) · excl. goodwill write-downs -1.7%
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$121.98 $8.31 Fair Value $25.90 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.31 – $121.98 · fair‑value band $5.18 – $58.48 · the $16.64 price screens below the $25.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal.

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Its Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling.

This segment offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services.

The Omni Logistics segment offers full suite of global logistics services, such as air and ocean freight consolidation and forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, value-added services, time-definite transportation services, and other supply chain solutions.

Its Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract and container freight station warehouse and handling services.

The company serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. Forward Air Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) currently trades at $16.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.90, implying the stock looks roughly 36% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $29.85 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the $16.64 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $11.96, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $5.18 (bear) to $58.48 (bull), the price of $16.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Forward Air Corporation reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$108M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $552M Small · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) $−10.36 · Net margin −11.4% · Return on equity −736% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.3% · Revenue (TTM) $2.5B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 56%, FWRD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.18 Fair Value $25.90 Bull $58.48
Price $16.64 · Upside +55.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $2.18 $30.47 $70.79 70
Growth DCF $1.35 $25.90 $58.48 69
Owner Earnings $1.34 $29.13 $68.76 67
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.18 $30.47 $70.79 70
Owner Earnings $1.34 $29.13 $68.76 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.31 $36.19 $77.91 67
10Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $13.87 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.43 $29.23 $69.87 59
Multiples
EV/EBITDA n/a $11.96 $30.15 62
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.35 $25.90 $58.48 69

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 21
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 13
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 3
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 15
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 54
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 32
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 16
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SaleCetus Capital VI, L.P.10% owner197,163 shares at $21.82$4.3MNov 12, 2025

Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.8% (2020) → 1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+57.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +53.5% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.1%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +55.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −3.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −11.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 6.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.22× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 36.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.65× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)44 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 64

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥34.54 ¥45.60 +32% vs FWRD
FedEx Corporation FDX $308.14 $350.86 +14% vs FWRD
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $108.30 $107.24 −1% vs FWRD
Deutsche Post AG DHL €58.02 €53.62 −8% vs FWRD
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $184.61 $117.46 −36% vs FWRD
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 235.50 CHF 147.92 −37% vs FWRD
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $217.55 $133.78 −39% vs FWRD
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €24.52 €14.76 −40% vs FWRD
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,470 kr 711.95 −52% vs FWRD
FedEx Freight Holding FDXF $123.56 $54.55 −56% vs FWRD

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Forward Air Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Forward Air Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FWRD

Frequently asked questions

Is Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.90 versus a price of $16.64, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FWRD?
Our model-based fair value for Forward Air Corporation is $25.90 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.64.
What is the quality score of FWRD?
Forward Air Corporation has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.90 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.18, optimistic scenario $58.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Forward Air Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.90, about +56% upside versus a price of $16.64 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.18, optimistic scenario $58.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Forward Air Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Forward Air Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +57.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FWRD use?
Our models discount Forward Air Corporation at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Forward Air Corporation that is +57.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Forward Air Corporation grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +57.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Forward Air Corporation (+57.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.82 %: that much free cash flow Forward Air Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Forward Air Corporation it is $25.90 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $16.64. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Forward Air Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, FWRD trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.64, fair value $25.90, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FWRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.90). For Forward Air Corporation the two are $9.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Forward Air Corporation worth?
The market values Forward Air Corporation at about $552M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $16.64; our models calculate a fair value of $25.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FWRD?
Our models span a range for Forward Air Corporation: cautious scenario $5.18, base $25.90, optimistic $58.48 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $16.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of FWRD?
The PEG ratio of Forward Air Corporation is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Forward Air Corporation (as of Nov 3, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FWRD from its 52-week high?
Forward Air Corporation trades at $16.64, about 45% below its 52-week high of $30.23 and 100% above the low of $8.31 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Forward Air Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Forward Air Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $16.64, calculated fair value $25.90 (+56%), Quality Score 28/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FWRD calculated?
We run Forward Air Corporation through 7 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $25.90 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Forward Air Corporation currently trades 36% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $16.64. Our model-based fair value is $25.90, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Forward Air Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (28/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($5.18 to $58.48). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Forward Air Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The market capitalisation of Forward Air Corporation is $552M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Forward Air Corporation is 0.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Earnings per share at Forward Air Corporation are $−10.36. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The net margin of Forward Air Corporation is −11.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Forward Air Corporation is −736% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Forward Air Corporation is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
The operating margin of Forward Air Corporation is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Revenue at Forward Air Corporation is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)?
Earnings per share at Forward Air Corporation are growing +145% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) carry?
The net debt of Forward Air Corporation is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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