Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Grupo Mateus S.A BRL 17.06, price BRL 5.70, upside +199.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$3.08 – R$8.26 · fair‑value band R$10.39 – R$29.25 · the R$5.70 price screens below the R$17.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Grupo Mateus S.A. operates a supermarket chain in Brazil. It operates wholesale, furniture and home appliances, e-commerce, bakery industry and slicing and portioning center. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in São Luís, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3) currently trades at R$5.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$17.06, implying the stock looks roughly 66.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$25.54 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$5.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$3.02, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$10.39 (bear) to R$29.25 (bull), the price of R$5.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grupo Mateus S.A reported revenue of R$38.4B in FY2025 versus R$15.9B in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.8B in FY2025, compounding +24.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$13.0B (≈ $2.6B) · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) R$0.7200 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 199%, GMAT3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$10.39Fair Value R$17.06Bull R$29.25
Price R$5.70 · Upside +199.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.4653 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCFR$13.27R$20.42R$42.7276
Growth DCFR$12.46R$22.39R$41.8275
EPVR$7.70R$8.92R$9.9674
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFR$13.27R$20.42R$42.7276
Owner EarningsR$15.05R$33.34R$70.3271
5Y Revenue ExitR$10.48R$18.15R$34.0269
5Y EBITDA ExitR$11.51R$20.25R$37.1972
5Y P/E ExitR$13.40R$29.57R$51.4267
10Y Revenue ExitR$11.05R$23.58R$32.2666
10Y EBITDA ExitR$12.15R$25.71R$50.2564
10Y P/E ExitR$13.48R$29.60R$57.4660
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddR$5.42R$37.78R$53.0263
Lynch FVR$13.57R$19.38R$25.2061
PEG = 1.0R$13.57R$19.38R$25.2057
EPVR$7.70R$8.92R$9.9674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMR$0.5600R$1.11R$1.6867
DDM Multi-StageR$0.5600R$0.9600R$1.1767
Multiples
P/E MultipleR$13.15R$17.53R$21.9163
P/S MultipleR$10.16R$13.54R$16.9358
P/B MultipleR$10.16R$13.54R$16.9355
EV/EBITR$12.70R$16.93R$21.1666
EV/EBITDAR$10.58R$14.11R$17.6367
EV/RevenueR$8.57R$12.23R$15.9053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R$2.26R$3.02R$4.5154
Growth DCF
Growth DCFR$12.46R$22.39R$41.8275
Rev-Margin DCFR$10.48R$20.76R$38.8369
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeR$5.07R$7.10R$12.9172
ROIC CompounderR$9.82R$14.78R$18.3072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ER$17.88R$25.54R$33.2167
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price and +5.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+199.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Is Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$17.06 versus a price of R$5.70, about +199% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GMAT3?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Mateus S.A is R$17.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$5.70.
What is the quality score of GMAT3?
Grupo Mateus S.A has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$17.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$10.39, optimistic scenario R$29.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Mateus S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$17.06, about +199% upside versus a price of R$5.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$10.39, optimistic scenario R$29.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
Grupo Mateus S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$40.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Grupo Mateus S.A pay a dividend?
Grupo Mateus S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.14% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Mateus S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.4 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GMAT3 use?
Our models discount Grupo Mateus S.A at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Mateus S.A that is +9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Mateus S.A grew +25.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Mateus S.A (+9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.51 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Mateus S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Mateus S.A it is R$17.06 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of R$5.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Mateus S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, GMAT3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$5.70, fair value R$17.06, a gap of about +199% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GMAT3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$5.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$17.06). For Grupo Mateus S.A the two are R$11.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Mateus S.A worth?
The market values Grupo Mateus S.A at about R$13.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is R$5.70; our models calculate a fair value of R$17.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GMAT3?
Our models span a range for Grupo Mateus S.A: cautious scenario R$10.39, base R$17.06, optimistic R$29.25 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price R$5.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GMAT3?
Grupo Mateus S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$17.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Mateus S.A (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 14.3%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GMAT3 from its 52-week high?
Grupo Mateus S.A trades at R$5.70, about 12% below its 52-week high of R$6.51 and 60% above the low of R$3.57 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$17.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Mateus S.A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Mateus S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price R$5.70, calculated fair value R$17.06 (+199%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GMAT3 calculated?
We run Grupo Mateus S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$17.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Mateus S.A currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was R$5.70. Our model-based fair value is R$17.06, about +199% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Mateus S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$10.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (R$10.39 to R$29.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Grupo Mateus S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Mateus S.A is R$13.0B (≈ $2.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Mateus S.A is 0.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Mateus S.A are R$0.7200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Mateus S.A is 2.1% (payout 16.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
The net margin of Grupo Mateus S.A is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Mateus S.A is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Mateus S.A is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
The operating margin of Grupo Mateus S.A is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
Revenue at Grupo Mateus S.A is growing +12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Mateus S.A are growing −40.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Mateus S.A (GMAT3) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Mateus S.A is R$5.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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