Grindrod (GND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grindrod ZAR 24.67, price ZAR 29.12, upside -15.3%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R3.88 – R30.08 · fair‑value band R20.51 – R29.79 · the R29.12 price screens above the R24.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Grindrod Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics services business in North America, the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Isle of Man, rest of Europe, Singapore, Asia, the Far East, Australia, South Africa, and Rest of Africa.
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Grindrod Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics services business in North America, the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Isle of Man, rest of Europe, Singapore, Asia, the Far East, Australia, South Africa, and Rest of Africa. The company operates through Ports and Terminals; Logistics; Group; Private Equity and Property; and Marine Fuels segments. It engages in the bulk terminal activities include receiving, stockpiling, and loading of cargo onto vessels for onward transportation; container handling, transport, warehousing, loading, and offloading; selling and leasing containers; and logistics solutions for the transportation of cargo through road, rail, and sea. The company provides clearing and forwarding of imports and exports, transportation of goods, and ship husbandry services; and various ancillary services, including training, stevedoring, and rentals. In addition, it involves managing and handling port activities; freight services, such as handling and storage of containers, clearing and forwarding to road, rail, and seaborne freight; ships agency; and marine fuels, lubricants, bunkers, and agricultural commodities. Further, the company invests in private and property equity portfolios; and engages in the private equity investment business. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Durban, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Grindrod (GND) currently trades at R29.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R24.67, implying the stock looks roughly 18.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R50.93 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the R29.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R9.69, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R20.51 (bear) to R29.79 (bull), the price of R29.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Grindrod reported revenue of 5.6B ZAR in FY2025 versus 3.4B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +12.9%/yr. Reported net income was 2.1B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +76.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.4B ZAC · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 3.50 · EPS (TTM) R3.20 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 38.5% · Return on equity 21.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −15%, GND screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R20.51Fair Value R24.67Bull R29.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.92 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+56.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+54.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.49% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 18%
2025 sits 225% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grindrod Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GND
Frequently asked questions
Is Grindrod (GND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R24.67 versus a price of R29.12, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GND?
Our model-based fair value for Grindrod is R24.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R29.12.
What is the quality score of GND?
Grindrod has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grindrod (GND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R24.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R20.51, optimistic scenario R29.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grindrod stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R24.67, about −15% upside versus a price of R29.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R20.51, optimistic scenario R29.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grindrod (GND)?
Grindrod reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Grindrod pay a dividend?
Grindrod currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grindrod (GND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grindrod would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GND use?
Our models discount Grindrod at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grindrod that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grindrod (GND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grindrod grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grindrod (GND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grindrod (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grindrod (GND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.17 %: that much free cash flow Grindrod produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grindrod (GND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grindrod it is R24.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R29.12. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grindrod stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GND trades above its calculated fair value: price R29.12, fair value R24.67, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GND?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R29.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R24.67). For Grindrod the two are R4.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grindrod worth?
The market values Grindrod at about 19.4B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R29.12; our models calculate a fair value of R24.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GND?
Our models span a range for Grindrod: cautious scenario R20.51, base R24.67, optimistic R29.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R29.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GND?
Grindrod trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R24.67 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.2 (reported 9.1). Other multiples: PEG 100.0, P/B 2.0, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 13.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GND?
The PEG ratio of Grindrod is 99.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grindrod (GND)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grindrod (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.8%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GND from its 52-week high?
Grindrod trades at R29.12, about 3% below its 52-week high of R30.08 and 95% above the low of R14.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R24.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grindrod?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grindrod stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R29.12, calculated fair value R24.67 (−15%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GND calculated?
We run Grindrod through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R24.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Grindrod itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grindrod (GND)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R29.12. Our model-based fair value is R24.67, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grindrod right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Grindrod
How large is the market capitalisation of Grindrod (GND)?
The market capitalisation of Grindrod is 19.4B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grindrod (GND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grindrod is 3.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grindrod (GND)?
Earnings per share at Grindrod are R3.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grindrod (GND)?
The dividend yield of Grindrod is 1.7% (payout 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grindrod (GND)?
The net margin of Grindrod is 38.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grindrod (GND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grindrod is 21.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grindrod (GND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grindrod is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grindrod (GND)?
The operating margin of Grindrod is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grindrod (GND)?
Revenue at Grindrod is growing +27.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grindrod (GND)?
Earnings per share at Grindrod are growing +202% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Grindrod (GND) hold?
Grindrod holds more cash than debt, 699M ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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